Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models

doi:10.1007/s00376-015-4162-3

	Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models
	Song Yajuan 1,2; Wang Lei 3; Lei Xiaoyan 2; Wang Xidong 4
刊名	ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
	2015-11
卷号	32 期号:11 页码:1539-1550
关键词	tropical cyclone genesis potential index CMIP5 western North Pacific global warming
ISSN号	0256-1530
DOI	10.1007/s00376-015-4162-3
英文摘要	Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index (GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble (MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20A degrees N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20A degrees N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.
资助项目	Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[SQ201208]
WOS关键词	EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; SOUTH CHINA SEA ; BASIC EVALUATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; COUPLED MODEL ; INTENSITY ; IMPACT ; VARIABILITY ; GCM
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000360861400009
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.fio.com.cn:8080/handle/2SI8HI0U/26719]
专题	自然资源部第一海洋研究所
通讯作者	Lei Xiaoyan
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Coll Phys & Environm Oceanog, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China 2.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China 4.State Ocean Adm, Key Lab Marine Environm Informat Technol, Tianjin 300171, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song Yajuan,Wang Lei,Lei Xiaoyan,et al. Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models[J]. ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2015,32(11):1539-1550.
APA	Song Yajuan,Wang Lei,Lei Xiaoyan,&Wang Xidong.(2015).Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,32(11),1539-1550.
MLA	Song Yajuan,et al."Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 32.11(2015):1539-1550.