On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature

doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1128-8

	On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature
	Wu, Zhaohua 2,3; Huang, Norden E.1; Wallace, John M.4; Smoliak, Brian V.4; Chen, Xianyao 5
刊名	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
	2011-08
卷号	37 期号:3-4 页码:759-773
关键词	Global warming trend Multidecadal variability Ensemble empirical mode decomposition IPCC AR4
ISSN号	0930-7575
DOI	10.1007/s00382-011-1128-8
英文摘要	The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889-14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (similar to 65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08A degrees C per decade since similar to 1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability.
资助项目	National Key Technology RD Program[2006BAB18B02]
WOS关键词	EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; HILBERT SPECTRUM ; SERIES ; PREDICTABILITY ; OSCILLATION ; SECTOR ; FILTER
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000293403500021
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.fio.com.cn:8080/handle/2SI8HI0U/25761]
专题	自然资源部第一海洋研究所
通讯作者	Huang, Norden E.
作者单位	1.Natl Cent Univ, Res Ctr Adapt Data Anal Ctr, Chungli 32001, Taiwan 2.Florida State Univ, Dept Meteorol, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA 3.Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmospher Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA 4.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA 5.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Zhaohua,Huang, Norden E.,Wallace, John M.,et al. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2011,37(3-4):759-773.
APA	Wu, Zhaohua,Huang, Norden E.,Wallace, John M.,Smoliak, Brian V.,&Chen, Xianyao.(2011).On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,37(3-4),759-773.
MLA	Wu, Zhaohua,et al."On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 37.3-4(2011):759-773.