Retrospective and Prospective Benefit-Cost Analyses of U.S. Anti-Smoking Policies

doi:10.1017/bca.2014.1

CORC > 上海财经大学 > 上海财经大学

	Retrospective and Prospective Benefit-Cost Analyses of U.S. Anti-Smoking Policies
	Jin, Lawrence 1; Kenkel, Don 1,2; Liu, Feng 3; Wang, Hua 1
刊名	JOURNAL OF BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS
	2015-03
卷号	6 期号:1 页码:154-186
关键词	addiction behavioral economics smoking
ISSN号	2194-5888
DOI	10.1017/bca.2014.1
英文摘要	Regulatory policies designed to improve societal welfare by "nudging" consumers to make better choices are increasingly popular. The application of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) to this sort of regulation confronts difficult theoretical and applied issues. In this analysis we contribute a worked example of behavioral BCA of U.S. anti-smoking policies. Our conceptual framework extends the standard market-based approach to BCA to allow for individual failures to make lifetime-utility-maximizing choices of cigarette consumption. We discuss how our market-based approach compares to the health benefits approach and the "consumer surplus offset" controversy in recent BCAs of several health-related regulations. We use a dynamic population model to make counterfactual simulations of smoking prevalence rates and cigarette demand over time. In our retrospective BCA the simulation results imply that the overall impact of anti-smoking policies from 1964 to 2010 is to reduce the total cigarette consumption by 28%. At a discount rate of 3% the 1964-present value of the consumer benefits from anti-smoking policies through 2010 is estimated to be $573 billion ($2010). Although we are unable to develop a hard estimate of the policies( costs, we discuss evidence that suggests the consumer benefits substantially outweigh the costs. We then turn to a prospective BCA of future anti-smoking Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulations. At a discount rate of 3%, the 2010-present value of the consumer benefits 30 years into the future from a simulated FDA tobacco regulation is estimated to be $100 billion. However, the nature of potential FDA tobacco regulations suggests that they might impose additional costs on consumers that make it less clear that the net benefits of the regulations will be positive.
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
语种	英语
出版者	CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000214787300006
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://10.2.47.112/handle/2XS4QKH4/1578]
专题	上海财经大学
通讯作者	Kenkel, Don
作者单位	1.Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA; 2.NBER, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA; 3.Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin, Lawrence,Kenkel, Don,Liu, Feng,et al. Retrospective and Prospective Benefit-Cost Analyses of U.S. Anti-Smoking Policies[J]. JOURNAL OF BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS,2015,6(1):154-186.
APA	Jin, Lawrence,Kenkel, Don,Liu, Feng,&Wang, Hua.(2015).Retrospective and Prospective Benefit-Cost Analyses of U.S. Anti-Smoking Policies.JOURNAL OF BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS,6(1),154-186.
MLA	Jin, Lawrence,et al."Retrospective and Prospective Benefit-Cost Analyses of U.S. Anti-Smoking Policies".JOURNAL OF BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS 6.1(2015):154-186.