Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990-2013

doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.07.002

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	Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990-2013
	Du, Yingxin 1; Ju, Jiandong 2,3; Ramirez, Carlos D.4; Yao, Xi 5
刊名	JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
	2017-09
卷号	108 页码:211-225
关键词	Political relations Bilateral trade China Temporal aggregation bias
ISSN号	0022-1996
DOI	10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.07.002
英文摘要	An extensive number of studies investigate the effects of political relations on trade by estimating a gravity model using annual (or quarterly) data. We argue that the use of low-frequency data introduces an aggregation bias because the cycle of moderate political shocks is much shorter (measured in weeks). Using monthly data from 1990 through 2013 for China, we estimate a model of political relations and conclude that political shocks are short-lived. Narrative evidence from two case studies illustrates the transitory nature of these shocks. A VAR model shows that although political shocks influence exports to China, the effects largely vanish within two months. A comparison of the monthly- and annual-frequency gravity equation regressions illustrates the effects of temporal aggregation. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000412612600013
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://10.2.47.112/handle/2XS4QKH4/901]
专题	上海财经大学
通讯作者	Ramirez, Carlos D.
作者单位	1.Univ Int Business & Econ, China Inst WTO Studies, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Tsinghua Univ, PBC Sch Finance, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Int Business Adm, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 4.George Mason Univ, Dept Econ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 5.Peking Univ, Guanghua Sch Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Du, Yingxin,Ju, Jiandong,Ramirez, Carlos D.,et al. Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990-2013[J]. JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS,2017,108:211-225.
APA	Du, Yingxin,Ju, Jiandong,Ramirez, Carlos D.,&Yao, Xi.(2017).Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990-2013.JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS,108,211-225.
MLA	Du, Yingxin,et al."Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990-2013".JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 108(2017):211-225.