Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on streamflow in the   Huangnizhuang catchment

doi:10.1007/s00477-014-1018-9

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	Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Huangnizhuang catchment
	Ouyang, Fen ; Zhu, Yonghua ; Fu, Guobin ; Lu, Haishen ; Zhang, Aijing ; Yu, Zhongbo ; Chen, Xi
刊名	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
	2015
关键词	Climate change CMIP5 RCPs Streamflow SWAT Huangnizhuang NORTH CHINA PLAIN RIVER-BASIN TEMPERATURE-CHANGES RUNOFF MODEL PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY UNCERTAINTY HYDROLOGY RAINFALL
DOI	10.1007/s00477-014-1018-9
英文摘要	Six global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three Respectively Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow for the Huangnizhuang catchment (HNZ) in China. Change factor method was used for bias correction between GCM outputs and observations and the SWAT model was used to simulate the hydrological processes. The results indicated that the SWAT model performed well in the study catchment with a monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) of 0.93 and 0.91 and daily NS of 0.63 and 0.68 for calibration and validation periods respectively. Their corresponding relative errors were -2.2 and 8.9, and -2.6 and 8.5 % respectively. The ensemble of multi-GCMs projected an increase of precipitation in the middle and end of twenty-first century over the HNZ, ranging from -2.4 to 9 %. However, streamflow is likely to decline in the future, ranging -6.9 to 0.8 %, mainly due to an increase of evapotranspiration in a warming world, as air temperature shows steadily increases for all the GCMs and RCPs. Average monthly streamflow from six GCMs are likely to increase in August and September but decline from October to June. The associated uncertainties of the reported results were also discussed. It includes, but is not limit to, different GCMs, emissions scenarios, downscaling techniques as well as hydrological simulations. The results of this study can inform planning of long-term basin water management strategies taking into account global change scenarios.; Program for National Basic Research Program of China [2013CBA01806]; Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China [51190090]; NSSF [41371049, 50939006]; Program of China Scholarship Council; Australia China Research Centre on River Basin Management; SCI(E); EI; ARTICLE; haishenlu@gmail.com; 7; 1781-1795; 29
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/416076]
专题	工学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ouyang, Fen,Zhu, Yonghua,Fu, Guobin,et al. Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Huangnizhuang catchment[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2015.
APA	Ouyang, Fen.,Zhu, Yonghua.,Fu, Guobin.,Lu, Haishen.,Zhang, Aijing.,...&Chen, Xi.(2015).Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Huangnizhuang catchment.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT.
MLA	Ouyang, Fen,et al."Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Huangnizhuang catchment".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT (2015).