Modeling the dynamic changes in concentrations of   gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) in Tianjin region from 1953 to   2020

doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2004.12.013

CORC > 北京大学 > 环境科学与工程学院

	Modeling the dynamic changes in concentrations of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) in Tianjin region from 1953 to 2020
	Tao, S ; Yang, Y ; Cao, HY ; Liu, WX ; Coveney, RM ; Xu, FL ; Cao, J ; Li, BG ; Wang, XJ ; Hu, JY ; Fang, JY
刊名	environmental pollution
	2006
关键词	multimedia model dynamic modeling gamma-HCH uncertainty analysis MULTIMEDIA FATE MODEL UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS EXPOSURE CANCER CHINA SOILS
DOI	10.1016/j.envpol.2004.12.013
英文摘要	A level IV fugacity model was used to simulate the dynamic changes of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) concentrations in environmental media in Tianjin, China. A similar model (level 111) was previously used and validated under steady state conditions; this paper explores its dynamic behavior. Application of the level IV fugacity model has been validated using independently observed gamma-HCH concentrations in various media during the early 1980s and during 2001. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using coefficient-of-variation normalized sensitivity coefficients. The model was also subject to uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that concentrations of gamma-HCH reached within 95% of their steady-state levels in all media after less than 15 years. Around one order-of-magnitude decreases in gamma-HCH concentrations in various media occurred between 1993 and 2001. We project that gamma-HCH concentrations will decrease another 1.7-1.9 orders of magnitude to reach 1.1 (0.9-1.2) x 10(-14), 2.7 (2.5-3.0) x 10(-10), 1.2 (1.1-1.3) x 10(-7), and 6.1 (5.4-6.8) x 10(-8) mol/m(3), in air, water, soil, and sediment, respectively, by 2020. The sensitivities and true uncertainty of the model are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.; Environmental Sciences; SCI(E); EI; PubMed; 27; ARTICLE; 1; 183-193; 139
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/159031]
专题	环境科学与工程学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tao, S,Yang, Y,Cao, HY,et al. Modeling the dynamic changes in concentrations of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) in Tianjin region from 1953 to 2020[J]. environmental pollution,2006.
APA	Tao, S.,Yang, Y.,Cao, HY.,Liu, WX.,Coveney, RM.,...&Fang, JY.(2006).Modeling the dynamic changes in concentrations of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) in Tianjin region from 1953 to 2020.environmental pollution.
MLA	Tao, S,et al."Modeling the dynamic changes in concentrations of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) in Tianjin region from 1953 to 2020".environmental pollution (2006).