Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in   observations and crop models

doi:10.1038/ncomms13931

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models
	Schauberger, Bernhard ; Archontoulis, Sotirios ; Arneth, Almut ; Balkovic, Juraj ; Ciais, Philippe ; Deryng, Delphine ; Elliott, Joshua ; Folberth, Christian ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Mueller, Christoph ; Pugh, Thomas A. M. ; Rolinski, Susanne ; Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Schmid, Erwin ; Wang, Xuhui ; Schlenker, Wolfram ; Frieler, Katja
刊名	NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
	2017
关键词	RISING CO2 CONCENTRATIONS CLIMATE-CHANGE HEAT-STRESS WATER PRODUCTIVITY ELEVATED CO2 EXTREME HEAT WHEAT YIELD PHOTOSYNTHESIS SYSTEM
DOI	10.1038/ncomms13931
英文摘要	High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 degrees C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 degrees C. Elevated CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.; German National Academic Foundation; EU FP7 project HELIX [SAW-2013-PIK-5, FP7-603864-2]; EU FP7 Project LUC4C [603542]; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) [01LS1201A1]; SCI(E); ARTICLE; 8
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/475651]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schauberger, Bernhard,Archontoulis, Sotirios,Arneth, Almut,et al. Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2017.
APA	Schauberger, Bernhard.,Archontoulis, Sotirios.,Arneth, Almut.,Balkovic, Juraj.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Frieler, Katja.(2017).Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS.
MLA	Schauberger, Bernhard,et al."Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2017).