Modeling the multimedia fate dynamics of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane in   a large Chinese lake

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.01.024

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	Modeling the multimedia fate dynamics of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane in a large Chinese lake
	Kong, Xiangzhen ; He, Wei ; Qin, Ning ; He, Qishuang ; Yang, Bin ; Ouyang, Huiling ; Wang, Qingmei ; Yang, Chen ; Jiang, Yujiao ; Xu, Fuliu
刊名	ecological indicators
	2014
关键词	Lake Chaohu gamma-HCH Fugacity-based multimedia fate model Uncertainty analysis Markov Chain Monte Carlo POLYCYCLIC-AROMATIC-HYDROCARBONS PERSISTENT ORGANIC POLLUTANTS WATER-GAS-EXCHANGE LONG-TERM FATE ORGANOCHLORINE PESTICIDES NORTHERN CHINA FUGACITY MODEL HEALTH-RISKS RESIDUAL LEVELS HAIHE PLAIN
DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.01.024
英文摘要	Long-term annual dynamics from 1984 to 2020 (simulation #1) and seasonal variation from May 2010 to February 2011 (simulation #2) of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) in various environmental media in Lake Chaohu, China were simulated with an already developed fugacity-based level IV Quantitative Water Air Sediment Interaction (QWASI) model (Kong etal., 2012). The model was modified, as a fish sub-phase was included. Also the emission flux was added to study the impact of the lindane prohibition in simulation #1. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for both static and dynamic parameters, while in uncertainty analysis, both basic Monte Carlo and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were undertaken for simulation #2 and the results were compared. Simulated data were consistent with the observations in simulation #1. Seasonal patterns in various media were also successfully modeled in simulation #2 and factors leading to this seasonality were discussed. Atmospheric advection input was the main source. In simulation #2, approximately 36 kilogram (kg) of gamma-HCH in Lake Chaohu was removed per year. In addition, 31 kg of gamma-HCH was added to Lake Chaohu by air-water interface fluxes, and 13 kg of gamma-HCH was added to the sediment by water-sediment interface. Sensitivity of static and dynamic parameters was discussed. Uncertainty analysis by the basic Monte Carlo method for simulation #1 showed that the dispersion for each media was less than two orders of magnitude. Higher dispersions in fish and two sub-phases of the sediment were attributed to a larger variation in the relevant parameters. The MCMC method for simulation #2 eliminated 77% of the model true uncertainty in water ascertained by basic Monte Carlo method and significant elimination in other phases can be speculated. It is suggested that rather than calibrating the model, the main function of the MCMC for fugacity model should be to avoid overestimating uncertainty in model prediction. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.; http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000334822200008&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701 ; Biodiversity Conservation; Environmental Sciences; SCI(E); EI; 2; ARTICLE; xufl@urban.pku.edu.cn; 65-74; 41
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/160913]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kong, Xiangzhen,He, Wei,Qin, Ning,et al. Modeling the multimedia fate dynamics of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane in a large Chinese lake[J]. ecological indicators,2014.
APA	Kong, Xiangzhen.,He, Wei.,Qin, Ning.,He, Qishuang.,Yang, Bin.,...&Xu, Fuliu.(2014).Modeling the multimedia fate dynamics of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane in a large Chinese lake.ecological indicators.
MLA	Kong, Xiangzhen,et al."Modeling the multimedia fate dynamics of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane in a large Chinese lake".ecological indicators (2014).