Regional unified model-based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009   across northern China

doi:10.1111/gcb.12095

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	Regional unified model-based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009 across northern China
	Xu, Lin ; Chen, Xiaoqiu
刊名	全球变化生物学
	2013
关键词	bottom-up approach climate change forcing and chilling requirements leaf unfolding regional unified model spatiotemporal prediction tree phenology LAND-SURFACE PHENOLOGY CLIMATE-CHANGE TEMPERATE TREES EASTERN CHINA TIME-SERIES BUD BURST BUDBURST SATELLITE DATES VARIABILITY
DOI	10.1111/gcb.12095
英文摘要	Using first leaf unfolding data of Salix matsudana, Populus simonii, Ulmus pumila, and Prunus armeniaca, and daily mean temperature data during the 19812005 period at 136 stations in northern China, we fitted unified forcing and chilling phenology models and selected optimum models for each species at each station. Then, we examined performances of each optimum local species-specific model in predicting leaf unfolding dates at all external stations within the corresponding climate region and selected 16 local species-specific models with maximum effective predictions as the regional unified models in different climate regions. Furthermore, we validated the regional unified models using leaf unfolding and daily mean temperature data beyond the time period of model fitting. Finally, we substituted gridded daily mean temperature data into the regional unified models, and reconstructed spatial patterns of leaf unfolding dates of the four tree species across northern China during 19602009. At local scales, the unified forcing model shows higher simulation efficiency at 83% of data sets, whereas the unified chilling model indicates higher simulation efficiency at 17% of data sets. Thus, winter temperature increase so far has not yet significantly influenced dormancy and consequent leaf development of deciduous trees in most parts of northern China. Spatial and temporal validation confirmed capability and reliability of regional unified species-specific models in predicting leaf unfolding dates in northern China. Reconstructed leaf unfolding dates of the four tree species show significant advancements by 1.41.6days per decade during 19602009 across northern China, which are stronger for the earlier than the later leaf unfolding species. Our findings suggest that the principal characteristics of plant phenology and phenological responses to climate change at regional scales can be captured by phenological and climatic data sets at a few representative locations.; http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000315900800027&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701 ; Biodiversity Conservation; Ecology; Environmental Sciences; SCI(E); PubMed; 11; ARTICLE; 4; 1275-1284; 19
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/160595]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Lin,Chen, Xiaoqiu. Regional unified model-based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009 across northern China[J]. 全球变化生物学,2013.
APA	Xu, Lin,&Chen, Xiaoqiu.(2013).Regional unified model-based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009 across northern China.全球变化生物学.
MLA	Xu, Lin,et al."Regional unified model-based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009 across northern China".全球变化生物学 (2013).