中国城市用地规模的影响因素分析--以2005年县级及以上城市为例

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	中国城市用地规模的影响因素分析--以2005年县级及以上城市为例; Determinants of City Size of China： Development, Government and Location
	刘涛 ; 曹广忠
刊名	资源科学
	2011
关键词	城市规模决定城市土地利用土地政策区位约束城镇化 Determinants of city size Urban land use Land use policy Location constraint Urbanization
英文摘要	本文放弃了Mills-Muth模型＂就城市论城市＂的视角,从区域的视角考察城市用地的规模决定。通过比较静态分析,考察市场化条件下的用地需求变化、各级政府对土地供给的博弈过程和区位约束对城市用地规模的影响,从城市土地供求关系的角度建立了区域视角下的转型期中国城市用地规模决定的一般化概念模型。基于中国626个城市的实证研究验证了概念模型的有效性,发现城市人口和产业规模的增长显著地提高了对城市土地的需求,第二、三产业的影响程度因城市发展阶段而异;经济发展水平和城镇化模式对城市用地规模的影响并不显著。中央政府的建设用地指标分配制度改变了城市的等级结构,却很难对城市用地扩张产生实质性约束;地方政府缺乏土地储备的激励,大量的开发区用地被迅速投入市场,造成了城市土地的粗放利用。土地资源的稀缺性提高了土地供给成本,交通区位劣势降低了土地需求,限制了城市用地的无序扩张。与理论分析结果不同,宏观经济区位的劣势并未有效地限制城市用地规模,反而促进了城市政府低价甚至负地价出让土地,造成了大量土地的闲置和粗放利用; The classical Mills-Muth model explains city size based on growth of the observed city itself, without considering its regional environment and competition with other cities for capital and population. In this study, the authors established a new model from a regional perspective, which appears to be effective to explain the wide range of city sizes in China. Since China is experiencing rapid industrialization, the industrial development also plays an important role in urban growth, even more important than the growth of urban residents. All urban land in China is owned by the state and operated by city governments, so land-related policies will also deeply influence the urban expansion. In China, there are many cities located in places with bad natural conditions, which may also have an impact on their competition with other cities, and on their land use patterns. The general conceptual model was established in a land supply and demand framework in transitional China, in which influences of industrialization, rural-to-urban migration, interest competition between central and local governments in the fiscal decentralization era, and location constraint on cities were explored by comparative static analysis. An empirical model was then established, in which we firstly controlled the scale of urban population and economy; therefore the coefficients of other variables reflect that cities with higher values of these variables tend to obtain more or less land, given that they have the same scale of population and economy with others, i.e., the intensive or extensive use of city land. The results of the econometric model based on land sizes of 626 China’s cities show that 1） rapid growth of city population and industries significantly increase demand for city land. Roles of manufacturing and service sectors in city growth vary with development stage of cities. 2） The impact of per capita GDP or the development level of a city is not significant when we controlled its economic scales. Cities with the FDI-driven development model tend to use city land more intensively, but this effect becomes insignificant when policy and location variables are controlled. 3） Although the central government seeks to restrict urban expansion by the Construction Land Quota policy, local governments that consider fiscal revenue but do not seem to have motivation to land conservation prefer to transfer more cultivated land to urban land by establishment of development zones. This has almost offset the positive impact of the CLQ policy on intensive use of city land. 4） The scarcity of land resources and traffic disadvantage restrict urban expansion by increasing cost of land development or by reducing land demand. 5） Contrary to theoretical expectation, the disadvantage of the macro-economic location of cities stimulates local governments to sell more land with lower, sometimes even negative prices to attract more investment, rather than restricts the land size of cities.; 国家自然科学基金项目; 中文核心期刊要目总览(PKU); 中国科技核心期刊(ISTIC); 中国科学引文数据库(CSCD); 中国社会科学引文索引(CSSCI); 0; 8; 1570-1577; 33
语种	中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/73123]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	刘涛,曹广忠. 中国城市用地规模的影响因素分析--以2005年县级及以上城市为例, Determinants of City Size of China： Development, Government and Location[J]. 资源科学,2011.
APA	刘涛,&曹广忠.(2011).中国城市用地规模的影响因素分析--以2005年县级及以上城市为例.资源科学.
MLA	刘涛,et al."中国城市用地规模的影响因素分析--以2005年县级及以上城市为例".资源科学 (2011).