Impact of climate change on the geographical distrubution of suitable areas for cultivation and conservation of underutilized fruit trees: case study of the tamarind tree in Benin.

	Impact of climate change on the geographical distrubution of suitable areas for cultivation and conservation of underutilized fruit trees: case study of the tamarind tree in Benin.
	Fandohan, Belarmain 1,2; Gouwakinnou, Gerard N.1; Fonton, Noel H.3; Sinsin, Brice 1; Liu, Jian 2
刊名	BIOTECHNOLOGIE AGRONOMIE SOCIETE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
	2013
卷号	17 期号:3 页码:450-462
关键词	Tamarindus Indica Fruit Tree Adaptation Diversification Ecotype Climate Change Crop Modeling Model Benin
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Climate change may limit integration of Underutilized Agroforestry Fruits Trees (UAFT) into formal cropping systems as a strategy to increase rural household income in Africa. The present study analyzed the potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of suitable areas for tamarind (Tamarindus indica L.), an economically important UAFT species. Presence records of the species were collected and combined with bioclimatic data derived from the Worldclim data base and from soil type data. The Maximum Entropy Modeling principle (MAXENT) was used in combination with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to forecast current and future (horizon 2050) suitable habitats for the cultivation and conservation of the species. Three different climate models were used for future predictions (the CCCMA, HadCM3 and CSIRO models) under IPCC scenario A2. Under current conditions, 65% of the national area and 87% of the national protected area network were found to be highly suitable for the cultivation and conservation of local tamarind ecotypes, respectively. It is possible that an increase in rainfall (CCCMA and HadCM3 models) will convert the currently highly suitable zones (semi-arid and subhumid dry) into poorly suitable areas at horizon 2050. A decline in precipitation (CSIRO model) could also convert the currently poorly suitable zones (sub-humid humid) into highly suitable zones. In the case of an aridification of the climate (CSIRO), cultivation and conservation of tamarind could become possible all over Benin and/or require the introduction of ecotypes from more arid areas. The predictive capacity of climatic models is constantly improving and it is therefore recommended that such studies be undertaken in order to better inform decision making for the optimum use of UAFT species.
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; WEST-AFRICA ; INDICA L. ; MANAGEMENT ; CAESALPINIOIDEAE ; PREDICTION ; NETWORK ; FOREST ; RIVER
语种	英语
出版者	FAC UNIV SCIENCES AGRONOMIQUES GEMBLOUX
WOS记录号	WOS:000327425000004
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/68511]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Fandohan, Belarmain
作者单位	1.Univ Abomey Calavi, Ecole Natl Super Sci & Tech Agron, Lab Ecol Appl, Ketou, Benin 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, United Nations Environm Programme, IEMP, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Abomey Calavi, Lab Etud & Rech Stat Appl & Biometrie, Cotonou, Benin
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fandohan, Belarmain,Gouwakinnou, Gerard N.,Fonton, Noel H.,et al. Impact of climate change on the geographical distrubution of suitable areas for cultivation and conservation of underutilized fruit trees: case study of the tamarind tree in Benin.[J]. BIOTECHNOLOGIE AGRONOMIE SOCIETE ET ENVIRONNEMENT,2013,17(3):450-462.
APA	Fandohan, Belarmain,Gouwakinnou, Gerard N.,Fonton, Noel H.,Sinsin, Brice,&Liu, Jian.(2013).Impact of climate change on the geographical distrubution of suitable areas for cultivation and conservation of underutilized fruit trees: case study of the tamarind tree in Benin..BIOTECHNOLOGIE AGRONOMIE SOCIETE ET ENVIRONNEMENT,17(3),450-462.
MLA	Fandohan, Belarmain,et al."Impact of climate change on the geographical distrubution of suitable areas for cultivation and conservation of underutilized fruit trees: case study of the tamarind tree in Benin.".BIOTECHNOLOGIE AGRONOMIE SOCIETE ET ENVIRONNEMENT 17.3(2013):450-462.