Using multi-model ensembles to improve the simulated effects of land use/cover change on temperature: a case study over northeast China

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2611-4

	Using multi-model ensembles to improve the simulated effects of land use/cover change on temperature: a case study over northeast China
	Zhang, Xianliang 1,2; Xiong, Zhe 3; Zhang, Xuezhen 4; Shi, Ying 5; Liu, Jiyuan 4; Shao, Quanqin 4; Yan, Xiaodong 2
刊名	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
	2016-02-01
卷号	46 期号:3-4 页码:765-778
关键词	Land use/cover change Regional climate model Multi-model ensemble Bayesian model averaging
ISSN号	0930-7575
DOI	10.1007/s00382-015-2611-4
通讯作者	Yan, Xiaodong(yxd@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Rather than simulating the effects of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on the climate using one climate model, as in many previous studies, three regional climate models (Regional Climate Model, version 3; the Weather Research and Forecasting model; and the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System) were used in the present study to simulate changes in temperature due to LUCC. Two experiments (CTL and NE) were designed and run using the three regional climate models. The CTL experiment was used to compare the simulations of the different models and served to illustrate the improvement that could be achieved as a result of employing a multi-model ensemble. The NE experiment was used to evaluate the changes in temperature caused by LUCC in northeast China between 1981 and 2000. The results of the CTL simulations showed that changes in temperature were simulated well by the three regional climate models; however, the simulated temperatures were different, dependent on the model used. The multi-model ensembles [the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA)] attained better results than any individual model. Of the two ensemble methods, BMA performed better than the AEM. The effects of LUCC on the climate in northeast China were assessed by the differences between the CTL and NE simulations for every RCM and the ensemble simulations. The BMA simulations produced more reasonable results than the other simulations. Based on the results, we can state with some confidence that LUCC in northeast China over the 20-year period studied caused a decrease in temperature, because of an expansion of arable land.
资助项目	National Key Scientific Project[2012CB95570000] ; National Key Scientific Project[2010CB950903] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41330527] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271066] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91425304]
WOS关键词	REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; GLOBAL CARBON-CYCLE ; TROPICAL DEFORESTATION ; COVER CHANGE ; EAST-ASIA ; INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ; MONSOON ASIA ; WEST CHINA ; IMPACT ; DESERTIFICATION
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000370030900006
资助机构	National Key Scientific Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/67525]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yan, Xiaodong
作者单位	1.Shenyang Agr Univ, CFERN, Res Stn Liaohe River Plain Forest Ecosyst, Coll Forestry, Shenyang 110866, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 10087, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Xianliang,Xiong, Zhe,Zhang, Xuezhen,et al. Using multi-model ensembles to improve the simulated effects of land use/cover change on temperature: a case study over northeast China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2016,46(3-4):765-778.
APA	Zhang, Xianliang.,Xiong, Zhe.,Zhang, Xuezhen.,Shi, Ying.,Liu, Jiyuan.,...&Yan, Xiaodong.(2016).Using multi-model ensembles to improve the simulated effects of land use/cover change on temperature: a case study over northeast China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,46(3-4),765-778.
MLA	Zhang, Xianliang,et al."Using multi-model ensembles to improve the simulated effects of land use/cover change on temperature: a case study over northeast China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 46.3-4(2016):765-778.