Influence of climate variability and human activities on stream flow variation in the past 50 years in Taoer River, Northeast China

doi:10.1007/s11442-017-1388-2

	Influence of climate variability and human activities on stream flow variation in the past 50 years in Taoer River, Northeast China
	Zhang, Kai 1,2; Li, Lijuan 1; Bai, Peng 1; Li, Jiuyi 3; Liu, Yumei 4
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
	2017-04-01
卷号	27 期号:4 页码:481-496
关键词	influence stream flow variation climate variability human activities Taoer River
ISSN号	1009-637X
DOI	10.1007/s11442-017-1388-2
通讯作者	Li, Lijuan(lilj@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Taoer River Basin, which is located in the west of Northeast China, is an agropastoral ecotone. In recent years, the hydrological cycle and water resources have changed significantly with the deterioration of the environment. Many water problems such as river blanking, wetland shrinking and salinization have occurred in this region. All of these phenomena were directly caused by changes in stream flow under climate variability and human activities. In light of the situation, the impact of climate variability and human activities on stream flow should be identified immediately to identify the primary driving factors of basin hydrological processes. To achieve this, statistical tests were applied to identify trends in variation and catastrophe points in mean annual stream flow from 1961 to 2011. A runoff sensitive coefficients method and a SIMHYD model were applied to assess the impacts of stream flow variation. The following conclusions were found: 1) The years 1985 and 2000 were confirmed to be catastrophe points in the stream flow series. Thus, the study period could be divided into three periods, from 1961 to 1985 (Period I), 1986 to 2000 (Period II) and 2001 to 2011 (Period III). 2) Mean annual observed stream flow was 31.54 mm in Period I, then increased to 65.60 mm in Period II and decreased to 2.92 mm in Period III. 3) Using runoff sensitive coefficients, the contribution of climate variability was 41.93% and 43.14% of the increase in stream flow during Periods II and III, suggesting that the contribution of human activities to the increase was 58.07% and 56.86%, respectively. 4) Climate variability accounted for 42.57% and 44.30% of the decrease in stream flow, while human activities accounted for 57.43% and 55.70% of the decrease, according to the SIMHYD model. 5) In comparison of these two methods, the primary driving factors of stream flow variation could be considered to be human activities, which contributed about 15% more than climate variability. It is hoped that these conclusions will benefit future regional planning and sustainable development.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[91547114] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41201568] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41201572]
WOS关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE ; MEAN ANNUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; VEGETATION CHANGES ; WATER-BALANCE ; YELLOW-RIVER ; IMPACTS ; BASIN ; CATCHMENT ; RUNOFF ; PRECIPITATION
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000392106700006
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/65125]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Li, Lijuan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Suzhou Univ Sci & Technol, Suzhou 215009, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Kai,Li, Lijuan,Bai, Peng,et al. Influence of climate variability and human activities on stream flow variation in the past 50 years in Taoer River, Northeast China[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2017,27(4):481-496.
APA	Zhang, Kai,Li, Lijuan,Bai, Peng,Li, Jiuyi,&Liu, Yumei.(2017).Influence of climate variability and human activities on stream flow variation in the past 50 years in Taoer River, Northeast China.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,27(4),481-496.
MLA	Zhang, Kai,et al."Influence of climate variability and human activities on stream flow variation in the past 50 years in Taoer River, Northeast China".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 27.4(2017):481-496.