Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run

doi:10.1007/s00484-016-1210-3

	Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run
	Wang, Huanjiong 1; Rutishauser, This 2,3; Tao, Zexing 1,4; Zhong, Shuying 1; Ge, Quansheng 1; Dai, Junhu 1
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
	2017-02-01
卷号	61 期号:2 页码:287-292
关键词	Phenology Leaf unfolding date Temperature sensitivity Climate change impact
ISSN号	0020-7128
DOI	10.1007/s00484-016-1210-3
通讯作者	Ge, Quansheng(geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Dai, Junhu(daijh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The impact of spring temperature forcing on the timing of leaf unfolding of plants (temperature sensitivity, S-T) is one important indicator of how and to what degree plant species track climate change. Fu et al. (Nature 526:104-107, 2015) found that S-T has significantly decreased from the 1980-1994 to the 1999-2013 period for seven mid-latitude tree species in Europe. However, long-term changes in S-T over the past 60 years are still not clear. Here, using in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species, we analyze the temporal change in S-T over decadal time scales extending the data series back to 1951. Our results demonstrate that S-T shows no statistically significant change within shifting 30-year windows from 1951 to 2013 and remains stable between 1951-1980 and 1984-2013 (3.6 versus 3.7 days A degrees C-1). This result suggests that the significant decrease in S-T over the past 33 years could not be sustained when examining the trends of phenological responses in the long run. Therefore, we could not conclude that tree spring phenology advances will slow down in the future, and the S-T changes in warming scenarios are still uncertain.
资助项目	National Major Scientific Instruments Development Project[41427805] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41401071] ; National Basic Research Program of China[2012CB955304]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SENSITIVITY ; PATTERN ; SERIES ; TREES ; TIME
WOS研究方向	Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000393669800008
资助机构	National Major Scientific Instruments Development Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Basic Research Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64875]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Ge, Quansheng; Dai, Junhu
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res OCCR, Bern, Switzerland 3.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Huanjiong,Rutishauser, This,Tao, Zexing,et al. Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,2017,61(2):287-292.
APA	Wang, Huanjiong,Rutishauser, This,Tao, Zexing,Zhong, Shuying,Ge, Quansheng,&Dai, Junhu.(2017).Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,61(2),287-292.
MLA	Wang, Huanjiong,et al."Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 61.2(2017):287-292.