Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.164

	Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model
	Zhong, Buqing 1; Giubilato, Elisa 2; Critto, Andrea 2; Wang, Lingqing 3; Marcomini, Antonio 2; Zhang, Jinliang 1
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2017-04-15
卷号	584 页码:259-267
关键词	Children Lead exposure Blood lead level IEUBK model Source apportionment Exposure pathways
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.164
通讯作者	Zhong, Buqing(zbq0910@163.com)
英文摘要	Lead, a ubiquitous pollutant throughout the environment, is confirmed to be neurotoxic for children by pulmonary and oral routes. As preschool children in China continue to be exposed to lead, we analyzed the available biomonitoring data for preschool children in urban China collected in the period 2004-2014 through a literature review. To identify apportionment of lead exposure sources for urban children in China, we modified the IEUBK model with a Monte Carlo module to assess the uncertainty and variability of the model output based on limited available exposure data and compared the simulated blood lead levels with the observed ones obtained through literature review. Although children's blood lead levels in urban China decreased statistically over time for the included studies, changes in blood lead levels in three economic zones and seven age groups except for two age specific groups were no longer significant. The GM-predicted BLLs and the GM-observed BLLs agreed within 1 mu g/dL for all fourteen cities. The 95% Cls for the predicted GMs and the observed distribution (GM +/- GSD) overlapped substantially. These results demonstrated the plausibility of blood lead prediction provided by the adapted IEUBK model. Lead exposure estimates for diet, soil/dust, air, and drinking water were 12.01 +/- 6.27 mu g/day, 2.69 +/- 0.89 mu g/day, 0.20 +/- 0.15 mu g/day, and 0.029 +/- 0.012 mu g/day, respectively. These findings showed that the reduction of lead concentrations in grains and vegetables would be beneficial to limit the risk of dietary lead exposure for a large proportion of preschool children in urban China. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
资助项目	Ministry of Science and Technology[2012CB525005] ; European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)[269233-GLOCOM]
WOS关键词	UPTAKE BIOKINETIC MODEL ; BLOOD LEAD ; PHARMACOKINETIC MODEL ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; ISOTOPE RATIOS ; YOUNG-CHILDREN ; DIETARY-INTAKE ; KINETIC-MODEL ; HOUSE-DUST ; PB
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000399358500026
资助机构	Ministry of Science and Technology ; European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64562]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhong, Buqing
作者单位	1.Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China 2.Univ Ca Foscari Venice, Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat, Via Torino 155, I-30172 Venice, Italy 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhong, Buqing,Giubilato, Elisa,Critto, Andrea,et al. Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2017,584:259-267.
APA	Zhong, Buqing,Giubilato, Elisa,Critto, Andrea,Wang, Lingqing,Marcomini, Antonio,&Zhang, Jinliang.(2017).Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,584,259-267.
MLA	Zhong, Buqing,et al."Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 584(2017):259-267.