Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models

doi:10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1

	Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models
	Liu, Wenbin 1; Sun, Fubao 1,2,3
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
	2017-04-01
卷号	18 期号:4 页码:977-991
ISSN号	1525-755X
DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1
通讯作者	Sun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Atmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets, and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling, and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, future changes of pan evaporation E-pan, a measurable indicator for atmospheric evaporative demand, are first projected and attributed over China through a physically based approach, namely, the PenPan model, forced with outputs from 12 state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in E-pan projection. The results indicated that E-pan would increase during the periods 2021-50 and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period 1971-2000 under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapor pressure deficit over China. The percentage increase of E-pan is relatively larger in eastern China than in western China, which is due to the spatially inconsistent increases in air temperature, net radiation, wind speed, and vapor pressure deficit over China. The widely reported "pan evaporation paradox'' was not well reproduced for the period 1961-2000 in the climate models, before or after bias correction, suggesting discrepancy between observed and modeled trends. With that caveat, it was found that the pan evaporation has been projected to increase at a rate of 117-167 mm yr(-1) K-1 (72-80 mm yr(-1) K-1) over China using the multiple GCMs under the RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario with increased greenhouse gases and the associated warming of the climate system.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0401401] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology in Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; National Science Foundation of China[41330529] ; National Science Foundation of China[41401037] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Initial Founding of Scientific Research from Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, CAS[Y5V50019YE]
WOS关键词	PAN EVAPORATION ; REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; UNITED-STATES ; TRENDS ; DROUGHT ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACTS ; REGION ; CYCLE
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000405433500004
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology in Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; National Science Foundation of China ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Initial Founding of Scientific Research from Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62954]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Sun, Fubao
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Hexi Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Zhangye City, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Wenbin,Sun, Fubao. Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2017,18(4):977-991.
APA	Liu, Wenbin,&Sun, Fubao.(2017).Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,18(4),977-991.
MLA	Liu, Wenbin,et al."Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 18.4(2017):977-991.