Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1709-y

	Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change
	Xia, Jun 1,2; Ning, Like 2,3; Wang, Quan 4; Chen, Junxu 5; Wan, Long 6; Hong, Si 2,3
刊名	CLIMATIC CHANGE
	2017-10-01
卷号	144 期号:3 页码:549-563
ISSN号	0165-0009
DOI	10.1007/s10584-016-1709-y
通讯作者	Ning, Like(ninglk@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	This paper quantifies the vulnerability of and risk to water resources (VRWR) under a scenario of climate change in the arid and semi-arid region of West China. A new approach integrating hazard, sensitivity, resilience, exposure and risk is developed to assess the VRWR from climate change. Drought is regarded as the key hazard, with its frequency and severity defined using a surface humidity index. Exposure is quantitatively linked with indicators of population and social and economic characteristics using statistical and Geographical Information System (GIS) methodologies. Risk is defined as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, while vulnerability is treated as a function of sensitivity and adaptation. Vulnerability and risk in the water resources system in the coming 20 years are assessed for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The results reveal that both hazard and exposure of water resources display strong spatial variation in the study area. High hazard and exposure are found in the northern Tianshan Mountain as well as the eastern part of Hexi Corridor. Water resources are particularly sensitive to variation in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the upstream areas of Hexi Corridor, rivers in Central Asia, headwater streams of Tarim River and most of Chang Tang Plateau. Our assessment shows that there is high vulnerability of and risk to water resources in the study area, especially in the areas of Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and Tarim River. Under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario, the vulnerability and risk decline over the entire area but remain at a serious level in inland rivers in Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and headwater streams of Tarim River. Thus, these areas are the highest priority for strengthening policy measures to adapt to climate change and reduce exposure and vulnerability and their risk to water resources.
资助项目	National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China[2012CB956204]
WOS关键词	ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ; NORTHERN CHINA ; EXPOSURE ; RUNOFF ; INDEX ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACTS ; BASIN
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000412660800013
资助机构	National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62108]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Ning, Like
作者单位	1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Shizuoka Univ, Grad Sch Agr, Shizuoka 4228529, Japan 5.Yunnan Univ, Sch Resource Environm & Earth Sci, Kunming 650091, Yunnan, Peoples R China 6.Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Soil & Water Conservat, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xia, Jun,Ning, Like,Wang, Quan,et al. Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,144(3):549-563.
APA	Xia, Jun,Ning, Like,Wang, Quan,Chen, Junxu,Wan, Long,&Hong, Si.(2017).Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,144(3),549-563.
MLA	Xia, Jun,et al."Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 144.3(2017):549-563.