Assessment of hydro-climatic trends and causes of dramatically declining stream flow to Lake Chad, Africa, using a hydrological approach

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.219

	Assessment of hydro-climatic trends and causes of dramatically declining stream flow to Lake Chad, Africa, using a hydrological approach
	Mahmood, Rashid 1; Jia, Shaofeng 1,2,3
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2019-07-20
卷号	675 页码:122-140
关键词	Trend analysis Climate variability Hydrological modelling HEC-HMS Human activities Lake Chad basin
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.219
通讯作者	Mahmood, Rashid(rashi1254@gmail.com) ; Jia, Shaofeng(jiasf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	In the 1960s, Lake Chad (LC) was one of the largest inland water body on the earth and since then, it has extremely shrunk from a surface area of 25,000 km(2) to 2000 km(2). The present study determines hydro-climatic changes in the active parts of the Lake Chad basin by using trend analysis and the causes of declining stream flow to LC due to human interventions and climate variability by using a hydrological approach. One approach, which is used to estimate changes in stream flow due to climate variability, is also modified in this study. Trend results showed that mean temperature exhibited very strong increasing trends, with amean rise of 1.4 degrees C for 1951-2015, while precipitation presented very weak to strong declining trends, with an overall decline of 15%. Regarding stream flow, all major rivers showed very strong downward trends, resulting in 67% decline. The northern and eastern regions were the most impacted areas in the basin regarding decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature. The hydrological approach showed that decreasing stream flow to LC varied between 34% and 45% in different decades. In general, human activities attributed a 66% decline in stream flow and climate variability 34% for the impacted period (1972-2013) relative to 1951-1971. Only during 1982-1991, climate variability caused most reduction (59% of total) in stream flow because of devastating drought during this period. Since stream flow to LC was mostly affected by human activities, proper water resources planning and sustainable management are necessary but under the umbrella of considering changing climate. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20010201] ; Power China International Limited
WOS关键词	SURFACE-WATER RESOURCES ; HEC-HMS MODEL ; RIVER-BASIN ; QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT ; GRIDDED DATASETS ; QUALITY-CONTROL ; WEST-AFRICA ; VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; RAINFALL
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000467391900012
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Power China International Limited
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59831]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Qinghai Inst Water Resources & Hydropower, Qinghai Key Lab Basin Water Cycle & Ecol, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China 3.Qinghai Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mahmood, Rashid,Jia, Shaofeng. Assessment of hydro-climatic trends and causes of dramatically declining stream flow to Lake Chad, Africa, using a hydrological approach[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,675:122-140.
APA	Mahmood, Rashid,&Jia, Shaofeng.(2019).Assessment of hydro-climatic trends and causes of dramatically declining stream flow to Lake Chad, Africa, using a hydrological approach.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,675,122-140.
MLA	Mahmood, Rashid,et al."Assessment of hydro-climatic trends and causes of dramatically declining stream flow to Lake Chad, Africa, using a hydrological approach".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 675(2019):122-140.