Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.353

	Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change
	Ferrarini, Alessandro 1; Dai, Junhu 2; Bai, Yang 3; Alatalo, Juha M.4,5
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2019-06-25
卷号	671 页码:1086-1093
关键词	Climate change compensation Network-like climate niche Non-parametric Bayesian network North America Reverse climate simulations Silene acaulis L
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.353
通讯作者	Alatalo, Juha M.(jalatalo@qu.edu.qa)
英文摘要	Climate change is increasingly affecting plant species distributions, in ways that need to be predicted. Here, in a novel prediction approach, we developed the relevant climate niche (RCN) of plants, based on thorough selection of climate variables and implementation of a non-parametric Bayesian network for climate simulations. The RCN was conditionalized to project the fate of Silene acaulis in North America under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; RCP4.5) and extreme(RCP8.5) short-term (2011-2040) climate scenarios. We identified a three-variable climate hypervolume for S. acaulis. Within 20 years >50% of current locations of the species will be outside the defined climate hypervolume. It could compensate for climate change in 2011-2040 through a poleward shift of 0.97 degrees C or an upshift of 138 m in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 1.29 degrees C or 184 m in the RCP8.5 scenario. These results demonstrate the benefits of redefining the climate niche of plant species in the form of a user-defined, data-validated, hierarchical network comprising only variables that are consistent with species distribution. Advantages include realism and interpretability in niche modeling, and new opportunities for predicting future species distributions under climate change. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	Qatar Petroleum[QUEX-ESC-QP-RD-18/19] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFA0606100]
WOS关键词	SILENE-ACAULIS ; CUSHION PLANT ; IMPACTS ; ALPINE ; RESPONSES ; POPULATION ; MODELS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000466090500110
资助机构	Qatar Petroleum ; National Key R&D Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59721]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Alatalo, Juha M.
作者单位	1.Via G Saragat 4, I-43123 Parma, Italy 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Mengla 666303, Yunnan, Peoples R China 4.Qatar Univ, Coll Arts & Sci, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, POB 2713, Doha, Qatar 5.Qatar Univ, Environm Sci Ctr, POB 2713, Doha, Qatar
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ferrarini, Alessandro,Dai, Junhu,Bai, Yang,et al. Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,671:1086-1093.
APA	Ferrarini, Alessandro,Dai, Junhu,Bai, Yang,&Alatalo, Juha M..(2019).Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,671,1086-1093.
MLA	Ferrarini, Alessandro,et al."Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 671(2019):1086-1093.