Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China

doi:10.1007/s00484-017-1377-2

	Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China
	Wang, Huanjiong 1; Zhong, Shuying 1; Tao, Zexing 1,2; Dai, Junhu 1; Ge, Quansheng 1
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
	2019-05-01
卷号	63 期号:5 页码:579-590
关键词	Climate change Flowering duration First flowering date Phenological model Phenology China
ISSN号	0020-7128
DOI	10.1007/s00484-017-1377-2
通讯作者	Dai, Junhu(daijh@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Ge, Quansheng(geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Existing evidence demonstrates that the first flowering date (FFD) of most plant species became earlier in response to temperature increase over the past several decades. However, the studies on changes in flowering duration (FD) were limited. By using the non-parametric Theil-Sen estimator, this study investigated the temporal trends in 127 time series of FFD, end of flowering date (EFD), and FD of 97 woody plants from 1963 to 2014 at three sites (Harbin, Beijing, and Xi'an) in North China. The relationship between flowering phenophases and temperature was analyzed using two phenological models. The results showed that most of FFD and EFD time series exhibited an apparent advancing trend. Among them, trends of 52.0% (40.9%) of FFD (EFD) time series were significant (P<0.05). FFD and EFD time series (95.3 and 89.8%, respectively) responded negatively and significantly to preseason temperature (P<0.05). The direction of FD changes varied among sites and species. On average, a shortening trend of FD was observed at Harbin (-0.51daysdecade(-1)), with 7.5% of species significantly. However, FD on average extended by 0.42 and 0.93daysdecade(-1) at Beijing (24.5% significantly) and Xi'an (28.9% significantly), respectively. The regression models could simulate the interannual changes in FFD and EFD with the mean goodness of fit (R-2) ranging from 0.37 to 0.67, but fail to simulate the changes in FD accurately (R-2 ranging from 0.09 to 0.18). The growing degree day model could improve the R-2 for simulating FFD and EFD except for FD. Therefore, more phenological models need to be tested, and more drivers of FD need to be further investigated.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41401071] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601047] ; National Major Scientific Instruments Development Project[41427805]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; TEMPERATURE ; RESPONSES ; TIME
WOS研究方向	Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000467487500003
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Major Scientific Instruments Development Project
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59303]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Dai, Junhu; Ge, Quansheng
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Huanjiong,Zhong, Shuying,Tao, Zexing,et al. Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,2019,63(5):579-590.
APA	Wang, Huanjiong,Zhong, Shuying,Tao, Zexing,Dai, Junhu,&Ge, Quansheng.(2019).Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,63(5),579-590.
MLA	Wang, Huanjiong,et al."Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 63.5(2019):579-590.