Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect

doi:10.1029/2018JD029996

	Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect
	Leng, Guoyong 1,2
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
	2019-06-27
卷号	124 期号:12 页码:6238-6246
关键词	global warming temperature compounding risk 1 5 degrees C crop yield United States
ISSN号	2169-897X
DOI	10.1029/2018JD029996
通讯作者	Leng, Guoyong(lenggy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	High temperature alone would lead to a well-understood loss of crop yields, but the compounding effects by other global change factors are much less well understood and can either amplify or reduce temperature-driven yield change. Analysis focusing on U.S. maize yield shows that the concurrent changes in precipitation have nonnegligible influence on temperature-yield relations. For the country as a whole, 27% of the observed strength of temperature-yield relation relates to the compounding precipitation effects. Further analysis shows that precipitation exerted the compounding effects mainly through its direct influence on yields rather than indirectly from its feedback to temperature. Under 2 and 1.5 degrees C global warming, maize yield for the country as a whole is projected to decrease by -13.53 to -14.37% and -9.02 to -9.29%, respectively, with the magnitude of change depending on the climate model. Around 30% of the benefit by constraining global warming to 1.5 degrees C would be contributed by the compounding precipitation effects, pointing to the important role of precipitation in regulating the impacts of temperature rise on yields. The results can greatly improve our understanding and interpretation of the important but uncertain temperature-yield relations. Plain Language Summary This paper assesses the precipitation effect in modulating maize yield response to temperature rise in the United States within the context of global warming. Results show that excluding the effect of precipitation does not lead to significant change in the spatial distribution pattern of temperature-driven maize yield changes but can alter the magnitudes substantially. For the country as a whole, concurrent changes in precipitation lead to a decrease in the sensitivity of maize yield to growing-season temperature from -7.48 to -5.47%/k. Constraining global warming to 1.5 degrees C can benefit maize yield by reducing temperature-driven loss from -13.53 to -14.37% under 2 degrees C to -9.02 to -9.29%. However, the estimated benefit by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C versus 2 degrees C would be altered considerably, when the effects induced by precipitation changes are excluded. This study highlights the important role of precipitation in regulating temperature impact on crop yields, which are subject to substantial uncertainties.
资助项目	Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[YJRCPT2019-001]
WOS关键词	LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION ; 1.5 DEGREES-C ; UNITED-STATES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; CROP YIELD ; INCREASE ; VARIABILITY ; GROUNDWATER ; MANAGEMENT
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000477800000020
资助机构	Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/58112]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Leng, Guoyong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Leng, Guoyong. Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(12):6238-6246.
APA	Leng, Guoyong.(2019).Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(12),6238-6246.
MLA	Leng, Guoyong."Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.12(2019):6238-6246.