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	Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data
	Chang, Yan1; Lyu, Shihua2,3; Luo, Siqiong1; Li, Zhaoguo1; Fang, Xuewei2; Chen, Boli4; Li, Ruiqing5; Chen, Shiqiang1
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
	2018-12-01
卷号	38期号:15页码:5659-5676
关键词	CMIP5 KUD permafrost projection SFI Tibetan Plateau
ISSN号	0899-8418
DOI	10.1002/joc.5770
通讯作者	Chang, Yan(changy63@lzb.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Permafrost has significant impacts on climate change through its strong interaction with the climate system. In order to better understand the permafrost variation and the role it plays in climate change, model outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used in the present study to diagnose the near-surface permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), assess the abilities of the models to simulate present-day (1986-2005) permafrost and project future permafrost change on the TP under four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results indicate that estimations of present-day permafrost using the surface frost index (SFI) and the Kudryavtsev method (KUD) show a spatial distribution similar to that of the frozen soil map on the TP. However, the permafrost area calculated via the KUD is larger than that calculated via the SFI. The SFI produces a present-day permafrost area of 127.2 x 10(4) km(2). The results also indicate that the permafrost on the TP will undergo regional degradation, mainly at the eastern, southern and northeastern edges, during the 21st century. Furthermore, most of the sustainable permafrost will probably exist only in the northwestern TP by 2099. The SFI also indicates that the permafrost area will shrink by 13.3 x 10(4) km(2) (9.7%) and 14.6 x 10(4) km(2) (10.5%) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the next 20 years and by 36.7 x 10(4) km(2) (26.6%) and 45.7 x 10(4) km(2) (32.7%), respectively, in the next 50 years. The results are helpful for us to better understand the permafrost response to climate change over the TP, further investigate the physical mechanism of the freeze-thaw process and improve the model parameterization scheme.
收录类别	SCI
WOS关键词	ACTIVE-LAYER THICKNESS ; SNOW DEPTH ; DEGRADATION ; TEMPERATURE ; CHINA ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION ; PROJECTION ; TRENDS ; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000452432200016
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2558241
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Chang, Yan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change Cold &, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China 2.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Plateau Atmosphere & Environm Key Lab Sichuan Pro, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 4.Changzhou Meteorol Bur, Changzhou, Peoples R China 5.Inner Mongolia Autonomous Reg Meteorol Observ, Hohhot, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chang, Yan,Lyu, Shihua,Luo, Siqiong,et al. Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(15):5659-5676.
APA	Chang, Yan.,Lyu, Shihua.,Luo, Siqiong.,Li, Zhaoguo.,Fang, Xuewei.,...&Chen, Shiqiang.(2018).Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(15),5659-5676.
MLA	Chang, Yan,et al."Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.15(2018):5659-5676.

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