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	Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan
	Zhao, Qiudong1,2; Zhang, Shiqiang3; Ding, Yong Jian1; Wang, Jian2; Han, Haidong2; Xu, Junli1; Zhao, Chuancheng2; Guo, Wanqin1; Shangguan, Donghui1
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
	2015-12-01
卷号	16期号:6页码:2383-2402
关键词	Models and modeling Hydrologic models
ISSN号	1525-755X
DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-14-0231.1
通讯作者	Ding, Yong Jian(dyj@lzb.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Arid and semiarid lowland areas of central Asia are largely dependent on fluvial water originating from the Tian Shan. Mountain glaciers contribute significantly to runoff, particularly in summer. With global warming, the total glacier area in the Kunma Like River catchment declined by 13.2% during 1990-2007. For future water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, such as the headwaters of the Tarim River. Thus, a degree-day glacier melt algorithm was integrated into the macroscale hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Good results were obtained for monthly runoff simulations in the Kunma Like River catchment, which suggest that the extended VIC has acceptable performance. Because of increased precipitation and air temperature, annual runoff in the catchment has increased by about 4.07 x 10(8) m(3) decade(-1) during 1984/85-2006/07. Under the assumption of the same climatic conditions, sensitivity analyses indicated that annual and summer river runoff volumes would decrease by 9.3% and 10.4%, respectively, for reductions in glacier area of 13.2%. The variation coefficient of annual runoff also increased because of shrinking glaciers. Runoff scenarios for warmer future climate and various deglaciation situations suggest that reductions in glacier area by >30% will likely produce less meltwater in summer and river runoff will decline. Consequently, the annual total discharge of the Kunma Like River is projected to decrease by 2.8%-19.4% in the 2050s scenario because of glacier shrinking.
收录类别	SCI
WOS关键词	DISTRIBUTED SURFACE-ENERGY ; REGIONAL-SCALE HYDROLOGY ; REMOTE-SENSING DATA ; NORTHERN TIEN-SHAN ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; MASS-BALANCE ; NORTHWEST CHINA ; MOUNTAIN GLACIER ; RUNOFF CHANGES ; VIC-2L MODEL
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000364975700001
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2557178
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Ding, Yong Jian
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Div Hydrol & Water Land Resource Cold & Arid Reg, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 3.NW Univ Xian, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Xian 710069, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Qiudong,Zhang, Shiqiang,Ding, Yong Jian,et al. Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2015,16(6):2383-2402.
APA	Zhao, Qiudong.,Zhang, Shiqiang.,Ding, Yong Jian.,Wang, Jian.,Han, Haidong.,...&Shangguan, Donghui.(2015).Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,16(6),2383-2402.
MLA	Zhao, Qiudong,et al."Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 16.6(2015):2383-2402.

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