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	Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China
	Zhang, D; Jim, CY; Lin, CS; He, YQ; Lee, F
刊名	CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN
	2005
卷号	50期号:2页码:137-144
关键词	climatic change war social unrest dynastic cycle temperature anomaly
ISSN号	1001-6538
DOI	10.1360/03wd0641
通讯作者	Zhang, D(zhangd@hkucc.hku.hk)
英文摘要	The evident connection between human evolution and climatic changes has been concurred by scientists. Although many people are trying to forecast the impacts of climatic changes on our future society, there are not any studies to quantitatively scrutinize the interrelation between climatic changes and social developments by using historical data. In line with this knowledge gap, this study adopted a scientific approach to compare the paleoclimatic records with the historical data of wars, social unrests, and dynastic transitions in China spanned from the late Tang to Qing Dynasties. Results showed that war frequency in cold phases was much higher than that in mild phases. Besides, 70%-80% of war peaks and most of the dynastic transitions and nationwide social unrests in China took place in cold phases. This phenomenon could be attributed to the diminishing thermal energy input in cold phases resulting in the fall of land-productivity and hence, the deficiency of livelihood resources across society. Accompanied with certain social circumstances, this kind of ecological stress was transformed into wars and social unrests, followed by dynastic transitions in most of the cases. By closer examination, it was even found that war frequency was negatively correlated with temperature anomaly series. As land carrying capacities vary from one climatic zone to another, the magnitude of war-temperature association also differed among different geographic regions. It is suggested that climatic change was one of the most important factors in determining the dynastic cycle and alternation of war and peace in ancient China.
收录类别	SCI ; SSCI
WOS关键词	LATE HOLOCENE ; KA BP ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; MILLENNIUM ; HISTORY ; RECORDS ; STATE ; RIVER
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE CHINA PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000228262700009
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2555694
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, D
作者单位	1.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, D,Jim, CY,Lin, CS,et al. Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China[J]. CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN,2005,50(2):137-144.
APA	Zhang, D,Jim, CY,Lin, CS,He, YQ,&Lee, F.(2005).Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China.CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN,50(2),137-144.
MLA	Zhang, D,et al."Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China".CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN 50.2(2005):137-144.

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