Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.01.012

	Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices
	Wu, Qiongli 1; Li, Sushan 2; Holst, Niels 3; Ferretti, Federico 5; Fennell, Pamela 4; Becker, William 5; Aleksankina, Ksenia 6,7; Saltelli, Andrea 8,9
刊名	ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
	2019-04-01
卷号	114 页码:29-39
ISSN号	1364-8152
DOI	10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.01.012
英文摘要	Sensitivity analysis provides information on the relative importance of model input parameters and assumptions. It is distinct from uncertainty analysis, which addresses the question 'How uncertain is the prediction?' Uncertainty analysis needs to map what a model does when selected input assumptions and parameters are left free to vary over their range of existence, and this is equally true of a sensitivity analysis. Despite this, many uncertainty and sensitivity analyses still explore the input space moving along one-dimensional corridors leaving space of the input factors mostly unexplored. Our extensive systematic literature review shows that many highly cited papers (42% in the present analysis) fail the elementary requirement to properly explore the space of the input factors. The results, while discipline-dependent, point to a worrying lack of standards and recognized good practices. We end by exploring possible reasons for this problem, and suggest some guidelines for proper use of the methods.
WOS关键词	MODELS ; UNCERTAINTY ; SIMULATION
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000458135500003
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.wipm.ac.cn/handle/112942/14317]
专题	中国科学院武汉物理与数学研究所
通讯作者	Saltelli, Andrea
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Wuhan Inst Phys & Math, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Tech Univ Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany 3.Aarhus Univ, Aarhus, Denmark 4.UCL, London, England 5.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy 6.NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 7.Univ Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 8.Univ Oberta Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain 9.Univ Bergen, Bergen, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Qiongli,Li, Sushan,Holst, Niels,et al. Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,2019,114:29-39.
APA	Wu, Qiongli.,Li, Sushan.,Holst, Niels.,Ferretti, Federico.,Fennell, Pamela.,...&Saltelli, Andrea.(2019).Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,114,29-39.
MLA	Wu, Qiongli,et al."Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 114(2019):29-39.