Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China

doi:10.3390/su11113199

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 山区发展研究中心

	Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China
	Li, Qinwen 1,2,3; Lu, Yafeng1,2 ; Wang, Yukuan1,2 ; Xu, Pei1,2
刊名	SUSTAINABILITY
	2019-06-01
卷号	11 期号:11 页码:15
关键词	climate change rainfall-induced debris flow mechanism model risk reduction management
ISSN号	2071-1050
DOI	10.3390/su11113199
通讯作者	Wang, Yukuan(wangyukuan@imde.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Risk assessment lays a foundation for disaster risk reduction management, especially in relation to climate change. Intensified extreme weather and climate events driven by climate change may increase related disaster susceptibility. This may interact with exposed and vulnerable socioeconomic systems to aggravate the impacts and impede progress towards regional development. In this study, debris flow risk under climate change was assessed by an integrated debris flow mechanism model and an inclusive socioeconomic status evaluation. We implemented the method for a debris flow-prone area in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Based on the analysis of three general circulation models (GCMs)Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1 (BCC_CSM), model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System, version 5 (MIROC5, and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4)the water-soil process model was applied to assess debris flow susceptibility. For the vulnerability evaluation, an index system established from the categories of bearing elements was analyzed by principle component analysis (PCA) methods. Our results showed that 432 to 1106 watersheds (accounting for 23% to 52% of the study area) were identified as debris-flow watersheds, although extreme rainfall would occur in most of the area from 2007 to 2060. The distributions of debris flow watersheds were concentrated in the north and transition zones of the study area. Additionally, the result of the index and PCA suggested that most areas had relatively low socioeconomic scores and such areas were considered as high-vulnerability human systems (accounts for 91%). Further analysis found that population density, road density, and gross domestic production made great contributions to vulnerability reduction. For practical mitigation strategies, we suggested that the enhancement of road density may be the most efficient risk reduction strategy.
资助项目	National Nature Science Foundation of China[41701114] ; West Light Foundation of The Chinese Academy of Sciences[Y7R280080]
WOS关键词	VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ; MASS-MOVEMENTS ; RETURN PERIOD ; RAINFALL ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACTS ; HAZARD
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000472632200204
资助机构	National Nature Science Foundation of China ; West Light Foundation of The Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/26507]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山区发展研究中心
通讯作者	Wang, Yukuan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 2.Minist Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Qinwen,Lu, Yafeng,Wang, Yukuan,et al. Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(11):15.
APA	Li, Qinwen,Lu, Yafeng,Wang, Yukuan,&Xu, Pei.(2019).Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China.SUSTAINABILITY,11(11),15.
MLA	Li, Qinwen,et al."Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China".SUSTAINABILITY 11.11(2019):15.