Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification

doi:10.1029/2018SW001915

	Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification
	Zhong, Qiuzhen; Wang, Jingjing; Meng, Xuejie; Liu, Siqing; Gong, Jiancun
刊名	SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
	2019
卷号	17 期号:5 页码:709-726
ISSN号	1542-7390
DOI	10.1029/2018SW001915
英文摘要	Solar energetic protons (SEPs) can cause radiation damage to satellites. The Space Environment Prediction Center of China defines the start of a SEP event as the time when three consecutive instances of the 5-min-averaged integral flux of >10 MeV protons equal or exceed the 10 proton flux unit threshold. In this study, we analyzed the 5-min-averaged soft X-ray flux and the differential and integral proton flux obtained by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites for the period from January 1990 to September 2017 and developed SEP prediction models and their products. The statistical models take one or two data products and the given thresholds as the predictor and predict whether a SEP event will occur or not in the next 24 hr. The quality of the forecast models was measured by comparing the model results against certain verification metrics. Our model taking the products of 5-min-averaged integral flux of >10 MeV protons and long wavelength of soft X-ray flux as predictors can provide a probability of detection of 0.80 (152/190), a false alarm ratio of 0.26 (53/205), and an average warning time of 2.6 hr for the correctly predicted events. In addition, the model can provide a critical success index of 0.63, a Gilbert skill score of 0.62, and a Heidke skill score of 0.76.
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/7052]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间环境部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhong, Qiuzhen,Wang, Jingjing,Meng, Xuejie,et al. Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2019,17(5):709-726.
APA	Zhong, Qiuzhen,Wang, Jingjing,Meng, Xuejie,Liu, Siqing,&Gong, Jiancun.(2019).Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,17(5),709-726.
MLA	Zhong, Qiuzhen,et al."Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 17.5(2019):709-726.