Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2115-8

	Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China
	Yang, Jun 1,2; Pei, Ying 1; Zhang, Yanwei 2,3; Ge, Quansheng 2
刊名	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
	2018-05-01
卷号	132 期号:3-4 页码:823-834
ISSN号	0177-798X
DOI	10.1007/s00704-017-2115-8
通讯作者	Yang, Jun(yangjun@lnnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41471140] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671158] ; Liaoning Province Outstanding Youth Program[LJQ2015058]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER-RESOURCES ; DROUGHT ; REGIMES ; FLOOD
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER WIEN
WOS记录号	WOS:000430539000011
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Liaoning Province Outstanding Youth Program
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57422]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yang, Jun
作者单位	1.Liaoning Normal Univ, Liaoning Key Lab Phys Geog & Geomat, 850 Huanghe Rd Shahekou Dist, Dalian, Liaoning, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Jinan, Jinan Univ, Soft Power Res Ctr, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Jun,Pei, Ying,Zhang, Yanwei,et al. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2018,132(3-4):823-834.
APA	Yang, Jun,Pei, Ying,Zhang, Yanwei,&Ge, Quansheng.(2018).Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,132(3-4),823-834.
MLA	Yang, Jun,et al."Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 132.3-4(2018):823-834.