The Predictability of Annual Evapotranspiration and Runoff in Humid and Nonhumid Catchments over China: Comparison and Quantification

doi:10.1175/JHM-D-17-0165.1

	The Predictability of Annual Evapotranspiration and Runoff in Humid and Nonhumid Catchments over China: Comparison and Quantification
	Wang, Tingting 1,2; Sun, Fubao 1,2,3,4; Lim, Wee Ho 1,5; Wang, Hong 1; Liu, Wenbin 1; Liu, Changming 1
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
	2018-03-01
卷号	19 期号:3 页码:533-545
关键词	Runoff Evapotranspiration Forecasting Interannual variability
ISSN号	1525-755X
DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-17-0165.1
通讯作者	Sun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Climate change and its potential threats on water security call for reliable predictions of evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff Q at different time scales, but current knowledge of the differences in their predictability between humid and nonhumid regions is limited. Based on spatially distributed catchments in China, the authors characterized their predictability and provided plausible explanations. Using the Budyko framework, it was confirmed that annual ET is predictable in nonhumid regions but less predictable in humid regions, and annual Q is predictable in humid regions but less reliable in nonhumid regions. The main cause of the varied predictability lies in the variation of water storage change S in the water balance equation. It affects both the estimation and the variability of Q in nonhumid catchments more than that in humid catchments, which increases the challenge of predicting annual Q in nonhumid regions, while the opposite effect occurs in annual ET prediction between humid and nonhumid catchments. Moreover, the differences between the controlling factors of ET variability in different regions add more differences in their predictability. The dominant control of precipitation makes it easy to predict annual ET in nonhumid regions. By contrast, precipitation, potential evaporation, and their covariance take considerable effort to determine annual ET variations, which leads to less reliable ET estimation and predictability in humid catchments. Therefore, one can accurately predict annual ET in nonhumid catchments and Q in humid catchments based on commonly used hydrological models. With proper consideration of S, the predictability of annual ET and Q in both humid and nonhumid catchments can be improved.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0401401] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Key Programs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program (Fubao Sun) ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology in Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; CPSF-CAS Joint Foundation for Excellent Postdoctoral Fellows ; CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative[2017PC0068] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41601035] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41401037] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41330529]
WOS关键词	BUDYKOS HYDROLOGICAL MODEL ; MEAN ANNUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; CONTINENTAL DIFFERENCES ; ENERGY-BALANCE ; WATER ; VARIABILITY ; FRAMEWORK ; TRENDS ; STREAMFLOW ; CLIMATE
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000430163400004
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Key Programs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program (Fubao Sun) ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology in Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; CPSF-CAS Joint Foundation for Excellent Postdoctoral Fellows ; CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative ; Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57272]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Sun, Fubao
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Hexi Univ, Ecol Inst Qilian Mt, Zhangye City, Gansu, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Water Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Tingting,Sun, Fubao,Lim, Wee Ho,et al. The Predictability of Annual Evapotranspiration and Runoff in Humid and Nonhumid Catchments over China: Comparison and Quantification[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2018,19(3):533-545.
APA	Wang, Tingting,Sun, Fubao,Lim, Wee Ho,Wang, Hong,Liu, Wenbin,&Liu, Changming.(2018).The Predictability of Annual Evapotranspiration and Runoff in Humid and Nonhumid Catchments over China: Comparison and Quantification.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,19(3),533-545.
MLA	Wang, Tingting,et al."The Predictability of Annual Evapotranspiration and Runoff in Humid and Nonhumid Catchments over China: Comparison and Quantification".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 19.3(2018):533-545.