Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature

doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3181-7

	Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature
	Zhang, Liangliang 1; Zhang, Zhao 1; Chen, Yi 1,2; Wei, Xing 1; Song, Xiao 1
刊名	NATURAL HAZARDS
	2018-04-01
卷号	91 期号:3 页码:1257-1272
关键词	Exposure Vulnerability Adaptation Maize Yield Global warming
ISSN号	0921-030X
DOI	10.1007/s11069-018-3181-7
通讯作者	Zhang, Zhao(zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Driven by increasing demand for food and industrial consumption, world's maize supply is under stress. Besides, the extreme temperature events are now exposing more threat to maize yield with ongoing climate change. Thus, a comprehensive analysis on maize exposure (exposure is defined as the cultivated area which is exposed to extreme temperature stress), vulnerability (here it means how much yield losses with each temperature increase/decrease at a national scale), and adaptation to extreme temperature is essential to better understand the effects on global maize production, especially in major production countries. It was found that warming trends during the growing season have extensively dominated the main maize-growing areas across the globe. And along with this mean temperature trend was the increasing heat stress and decreasing cold stress among most regions. Moreover, from 1981 to 2011, maize yield losses caused by heat stress in China, India, and the USA were 1.13, 0.64 and 1.12% per decade, respectively, while Mexico has been experiencing a reduction of yield loss due to decreased cold stress of 0.53% per decade. Furthermore, during the period of 2021-2051, the extreme heat stress would increase substantially, while the low temperature was estimated to drop slightly during the growing seasons. Such pattern had also been found over the key reproductive stage of maize. Accordingly, through the sensitivity test of two adaption measures, improved high-temperature-tolerant varieties and changing maize calendar earlier could both mitigate extreme meteorological stress on maize, while the former method would be the most effective way to do so. Our study could provide a paradigm for other crops and other countries in the world to analyze their exposure and vulnerability to the temperature stress and make corresponding adaptation measures.
资助项目	National Key Technologies RD Program[2017YFD0300301] ; National Basic Research Program of China[41571493] ; National Basic Research Program of China[41571088] ; National Basic Research Program of China[31561143003]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD SECURITY ; CROP PRODUCTION ; CHINA ; STABILIZATION ; IMPACTS ; STRESS ; SYSTEM ; TRENDS
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000427393100022
资助机构	National Key Technologies RD Program ; National Basic Research Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57236]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Zhao
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Liangliang,Zhang, Zhao,Chen, Yi,et al. Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2018,91(3):1257-1272.
APA	Zhang, Liangliang,Zhang, Zhao,Chen, Yi,Wei, Xing,&Song, Xiao.(2018).Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature.NATURAL HAZARDS,91(3),1257-1272.
MLA	Zhang, Liangliang,et al."Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature".NATURAL HAZARDS 91.3(2018):1257-1272.