Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics

doi:10.1007/s10668-017-9919-7

	Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics
	Wang, Xiao-Jun 1,2,3; Zhang, Jian-Yun 1,2; Shahid, Shamsuddin 4; Xie, Wei 5; Du, Chao-Yang 6; Shang, Xiao-Chuan 7; Zhang, Xu 1,2
刊名	ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
	2018-04-01
卷号	20 期号:2 页码:911-924
关键词	Water demand forecast Climate change Domestic water use Water resources management Huaihe River Basin
ISSN号	1387-585X
DOI	10.1007/s10668-017-9919-7
通讯作者	Wang, Xiao-Jun(xjwang@nhri.cn)
英文摘要	A statistical model has been developed to forecast domestic water demand by considering climate change, population growth, urbanization, lifestyle changes and technological advances. The developed model is used to forecast future domestic water demand in different sub-basins of Huaihe River Basin of China. The study reveals that mean temperature in Huaihe River Basin will increase by 0.7-1.6 A degrees C, population will reach to 230 million, and 61.2% of the basin area will be urbanized by the year 2030, which will cause a sharp increase in domestic water demand. The increase in domestic water demand for 1 A degrees C increase in mean temperature is found to vary between 0.549 x 10(8) and 5.759 x 10(8) m(3) for different sub-basins of Huaihe River. The forecasted change in domestic water demand is also found to vary widely for different general circulation models (GCMs) used. The GCM BCC-CSM1-1 projected the highest increase in domestic water demand, 168.44 x 10(8) m(3) in 2020, and the GISS-E2-R the lowest, 119.21 x 10(8) m(3). On the other hand, the BNU-ESM projected the highest increase, 196.03 x 10(8) m(3), and the CNRM-CM5 the lowest, 161.05 x 10(8) m(3) in year 2030. Among the different sub-basins, the highest increase in water demand is projected in Middlestream of Huaihe River in the range of 46.9 x 10(8)-65.5 x 10(8) m(3) in 2020, and 61.3 x 10(8)-76.1 x 10(8) m(3) in 2030, which is supposed to cause serious water shortage and an increase in competition among water-using sectors.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[51309155] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41330854] ; National Basic Research Program of China[2010CB951104] ; National Basic Research Program of China[2010CB951103] ; Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering[2016-ZD-08-05-02] ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research[IWHR-SKL-201515] ; Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change[ARCP2013-25NSY-Shahid]
WOS关键词	RESOURCES ; CONSUMPTION ; BALANCE ; IMPACT ; NEPAL ; CITY
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000427612100022
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research ; Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57200]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Wang, Xiao-Jun
作者单位	1.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 2.Minist Water Resources, Res Ctr Climate Change, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 4.Univ Teknol Malaysia, Fac Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia 5.Minist Water Resources, Dept Planning & Programming, Beijing 100053, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 7.Huaihe River Water Resources Commiss, Bengbu 233001, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Xiao-Jun,Zhang, Jian-Yun,Shahid, Shamsuddin,et al. Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics[J]. ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,2018,20(2):911-924.
APA	Wang, Xiao-Jun.,Zhang, Jian-Yun.,Shahid, Shamsuddin.,Xie, Wei.,Du, Chao-Yang.,...&Zhang, Xu.(2018).Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,20(2),911-924.
MLA	Wang, Xiao-Jun,et al."Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 20.2(2018):911-924.