Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.036

	Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China
	Xie, Ping 1,2; Wu, Ziyi 1; Sang, Yan-Fang 3,4; Gu, Haiting 1; Zhao, Yuxi 1; Singh, Vijay P.5,6
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2018-05-01
卷号	560 页码:451-460
关键词	Hydrological variability Abrupt change Detection and attribution Significance evaluation Rainfall-runoff relationship Water resources utility
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.036
通讯作者	Sang, Yan-Fang(sangyf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Abrupt changes are an important manifestation of hydrological variability. How to accurately detect the abrupt changes in hydrological time series and evaluate their significance is an important issue, but methods for dealing with them effectively are lacking. In this study, we propose an approach to evaluate the significance of abrupt changes in time series at five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong, and dramatic. The approach was based on an index of correlation coefficient calculated for the original time series and its abrupt change component. A bigger value of correlation coefficient reflects a higher significance level of abrupt change. Results of Monte-Carlo experiments verified the reliability of the proposed approach, and also indicated the great influence of statistical characteristics of time series on the significance level of abrupt change. The approach was derived from the relationship between correlation coefficient index and abrupt change, and can estimate and grade the significance levels of abrupt changes in hydrological time series. Application of the proposed approach to ten major watersheds in China showed that abrupt changes mainly occurred in five watersheds in northern China, which have arid or semi-arid climate and severe shortages of water resources. Runoff processes in northern China were more sensitive to precipitation change than those in southern China. Although annual precipitation and surface water resources amount (SWRA) exhibited a harmonious relationship in most watersheds, abrupt changes in the latter were more significant. Compared with abrupt changes in annual precipitation, human activities contributed much more to the abrupt changes in the corresponding SWRA, except for the Northwest Inland River watershed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[91547205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91647110] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51579181] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2017074] ; National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project[SHZH-391 IWHR-57]
WOS关键词	CHANGE-POINT ANALYSIS ; PAST 50 YEARS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER-BASIN ; TIME-SERIES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; TEMPORAL TREND ; STREAMFLOW ; CATCHMENT ; VARIABILITY
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000430882300034
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS ; National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/55015]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Sang, Yan-Fang
作者单位	1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Collaborat Innovat Ctr Terr Sovereignty & Maritim, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA 5.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, 321 Scoates Hall,2117 TAMU, College Stn, TX 77843 USA 6.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, 321 Scoates Hall,2117 TAMU, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Ping,Wu, Ziyi,Sang, Yan-Fang,et al. Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2018,560:451-460.
APA	Xie, Ping,Wu, Ziyi,Sang, Yan-Fang,Gu, Haiting,Zhao, Yuxi,&Singh, Vijay P..(2018).Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,560,451-460.
MLA	Xie, Ping,et al."Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 560(2018):451-460.