The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China

doi:10.1186/s12879-018-3427-8

	The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China
	Guo, Danhuai 1,2; Yin, Wenwu 3; Yu, Hongjie 3; Thill, Jean-Claude 4; Yang, Weishi 5,6; Chen, Feng 7; Wang, Deqiang 1,2
刊名	BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES
	2018-10-22
卷号	18 页码:13
关键词	Human rabies Socioeconomic and climate factors Regression model Heterogeneity Spatial dependence China
ISSN号	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-018-3427-8
通讯作者	Guo, Danhuai(guodanhuai@cnic.cn)
英文摘要	BackgroundRabies is a significant public health problem in China. Previous spatial epidemiological studies have helped understand the epidemiology of animal and human rabies in China. However, quantification of effects derived from relevant factors was insufficient and complex spatial interactions were not well articulated, which may lead to non-negligible bias. In this study, we aimed to quantify the role of socio-economic and climate factors in the spatial distribution of human rabies to support decision making pertaining to rabies control in China.MethodsWe conducted a multivariate analysis of human rabies in China with explicit consideration for spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence effects. The panel of 20,368 cases reported between 2005 and 2013 and their socio-economic and climate factors was implemented in regression models. Several significant covariates were extracted, including the longitude, the average temperature, the distance to county center, the distance to the road network and the distance to the nearest rabies case. The GMM was adopted to provide unbiased estimation with respect to heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation.ResultsThe analysis explained the inferred relationships between the counts of cases aggregated to 271 spatially-defined cells and the explanatory variables. The results suggested that temperature, longitude, the distance to county centers and the distance to the road network are positively associated with the local incidence of human rabies while the distance to newly occurred rabies cases has a negative correlation. With heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation taken into consideration, the estimation of regression models performed better.ConclusionsIt was found that climatic and socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the spread of human rabies in China as they continuously affect the living environments of humans and animals, which critically impacts on how timely local citizens can gain access to post-exposure prophylactic services. Moreover, through comparisons between traditional regression models and the aggregation model that allows for heterogeneity and spatial effects, we demonstrated the validity and advantage of the aggregation model. It outperformed the existing models and decreased the estimation bias brought by omission of the spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence effects. Statistical results are readily translated into public health policy takeaways.
WOS关键词	RACCOON RABIES ; POSTEXPOSURE PROPHYLAXIS ; UNITED-STATES ; TRANSMISSION ; CONNECTICUT ; EMERGENCE ; DYNAMICS ; MODELS ; TRENDS ; RISK
WOS研究方向	Infectious Diseases
语种	英语
出版者	BMC
WOS记录号	WOS:000448003700005
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52719]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Guo, Danhuai
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Comp Network Informat Ctr, 4th South Fourth Rd Zhongguancun, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, 19th Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, 155 Changbai Rd, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 4.Univ N Carolina, Dept Geog & Earth Sci, 9201 Univ City Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28223 USA 5.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 7.Univ Arizona, Dept East Asian Studies, 1512 E First St, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Danhuai,Yin, Wenwu,Yu, Hongjie,et al. The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China[J]. BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES,2018,18:13.
APA	Guo, Danhuai.,Yin, Wenwu.,Yu, Hongjie.,Thill, Jean-Claude.,Yang, Weishi.,...&Wang, Deqiang.(2018).The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China.BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES,18,13.
MLA	Guo, Danhuai,et al."The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China".BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES 18(2018):13.