Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River

doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1606-1

	Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River
	Zhao, Jiangyan 1; Xie, Ping 1,2; Zhang, Mingyang 3,4; Sang, Yan-Fang 5; Chen, Jie 1; Wu, Ziyi 1
刊名	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
	2018-11-01
卷号	32 期号:11 页码:3273-3286
关键词	Lowest navigable water level Inland waterways Synthetic duration curve Hydrological nonstationarity Lancang River
ISSN号	1436-3240
DOI	10.1007/s00477-018-1606-1
通讯作者	Xie, Ping(pxie@whu.edu.cn) ; Sang, Yan-Fang(sangyf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Conventional methods to design the lowest navigable water level (LNWL) in inland waterways are usually based on stationary time series. However, these methods are not applicable when nonstationarity is encountered, and new methods should be developed for designing the LNWL under nonstationary conditions. Accordingly, this article proposes an approach to design the LNWL in nonstationary conditions, with a case study at the Yunjinghong station in the Lancang River basin in Southwest China. Both deterministic (trends, jumps and periodicities) and stochastic components in the hydrological time series are considered and distinguished, and the rank version of the von Neumann's ratio (RVN) test is used to detect the stationarity of observed data and its residue after the deterministic components are removed. The stationary water level series under different environments are then generated by adding the corresponding deterministic component to the stationary stochastic component. The LNWL at the Yunjinghong station was estimated by this method using the synthetic duration curve. The results showed that the annual water level series at the Yunjinghong station presented a significant jump in 2004 with an average magnitude decline of -0.63m afterwards. Furthermore, the difference of the LNWL at certain guaranteed rate (90%, 95% and 98%) was nearly -0.63m between the current and past environments, while the estimated LNWL under the current environment had a difference of -0.60m depending on nonstationarity impacts. Overall, the results clearly confirmed the influence of hydrological nonstationarity on the estimation of LNWL, which should be carefully considered and evaluated for channel planning and design, as well as for navigation risk assessment.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[51579181] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91547205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91647110] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51779176] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2017074]
WOS关键词	MEKONG RIVER ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MANAGEMENT ; DISCHARGE ; BASIN ; STATIONARITY ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; DEAD
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000447873600018
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52576]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Xie, Ping; Sang, Yan-Fang
作者单位	1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Collaborat Innovat Ctr Terr Sovereignty & Maritim, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China 3.Wuhan Univ Technol, Intelligent Transportat Syst Res Ctr, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China 4.Wuhan Univ Technol, Natl Engn Res Ctr Water Transport Safety, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Jiangyan,Xie, Ping,Zhang, Mingyang,et al. Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2018,32(11):3273-3286.
APA	Zhao, Jiangyan,Xie, Ping,Zhang, Mingyang,Sang, Yan-Fang,Chen, Jie,&Wu, Ziyi.(2018).Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,32(11),3273-3286.
MLA	Zhao, Jiangyan,et al."Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 32.11(2018):3273-3286.