Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China

doi:10.3390/en12040624

	Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China
	Li, Zeng 1; Fu, Jingying 2,3; Lin, Gang 1; Jiang, Dong 2,3,4; Liu, Kun 5; Wang, Yaxin 6
刊名	ENERGIES
	2019-02-02
卷号	12 期号:4 页码:17
关键词	energy consumption carbon emission Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) scenario analysis bottom-up approach
ISSN号	1996-1073
DOI	10.3390/en12040624
通讯作者	Lin, Gang(ling@lreis.ac.cn) ; Jiang, Dong(jiangd@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	In view of the complexity of the energy system and its complex relationship with socio-economic factors, this study adopts the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, a technology-based, bottom-up approach, scenario-based analysis, to develop a systematic analysis of the current and future energy consumption, supply and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from 2015 to 2050. The impact of various energy policies on the energy system in Hebei Province was analysed by considering four scenarios: a Reference Scenario (REF), Industrial Structure Optimization Scenario (ISO), Terminal Consumption Structure Optimization Scenario (TOS) and Low-carbon Development Scenario (LCD). By designing strategic policies from the perspective of industrial adjustment, aggressive energy structure policies and measures, such as the ISO and the TOS, and even more aggressive options, such as the LCD, where the percentage of cleaner alternative energy sources has been further increased, it has been indicated that energy consumption will have increased from 321.618 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2015 to 784.88 Mtce in 2050 in the REF, with a corresponding increase in GHG emissions from 920.56 million metric tonnes (Mt) to 2262.81 Mt. In contrast, the more aggressive policies and strategies involved in the LCD, which combines the ISO with the policy-oriented TOS, can lower energy consumption by 50.82% and CO2 emissions by 64.26%. The results shed light on whether and how these scenarios can shape the energy-carbon emission reduction trajectories and develop the low-carbon pathways in Hebei Province.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040305] ; Key Program of International Cooperation Bureau of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[131A11KYSB20170014]
WOS关键词	GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; RENEWABLE ENERGY ; POLICY ; RESOURCES ; IMPACT
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000460667700050
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Key Program of International Cooperation Bureau of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49253]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Lin, Gang; Jiang, Dong
作者单位	1.China Univ Min & Technol Beijing, Coll Geosci & Surveying Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Minist Land Resources, Key Lab Carrying Capac Assessment Resource & Envi, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 5.Minist Nat Resources, Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applicat Ctr, Beijing 100048, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Forestry Sci, Resource Informat Ctr, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Zeng,Fu, Jingying,Lin, Gang,et al. Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China[J]. ENERGIES,2019,12(4):17.
APA	Li, Zeng,Fu, Jingying,Lin, Gang,Jiang, Dong,Liu, Kun,&Wang, Yaxin.(2019).Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China.ENERGIES,12(4),17.
MLA	Li, Zeng,et al."Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China".ENERGIES 12.4(2019):17.