Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.055

	Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China
	Yang, Wenting 1; Long, Di 1; Bai, Peng 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2019-03-01
卷号	570 页码:201-219
关键词	Land use/cover change Climate change Runoff change Markov SWAT Luanhe River basin
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.055
通讯作者	Long, Di(dlong@tsinghua.edu.cn)
英文摘要	The Luanhe River basin, the mostly afforested river basin in North China, has exhibited significant land use/land cover change (LUCC) under climate change that could jointly affect water availability of the basin in the future. This study examines both impacts of LUCC and climate change on runoff over the upper reaches of the Luanhe River basin. First, the land use in 2020 is predicted based on the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov). Second, a hydrological model (Soil Water Assessment Tools, SWAT) is set up for the baseline period 1961-1979 and driven primarily by outputs from five general circulation models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) for the period 2020-2030. Results show that the ensemble mean annual precipitation may increase under four RCPs for the period 2020-2030, with the maximum (470 mm/yr) and minimum (444 mm/yr) for RCP8.5 and RCP6.0, respectively, 1-7% higher than the observed mean annual precipitation (441 mm/yr) during 1961-1979. The relationship between the runoff simulations and the RCPs under the 2020 land use scenario is nonlinear, with the maximum (57 mm/yr) and minimum (50 mm/yr) mean annual runoff depths under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, respectively, similar to 58% and similar to 39% higher than the mean annual observed runoff depth (36 mm/yr) for the baseline period. The increase in forestland (similar to 56%) and decrease in agriculture land (similar to -30%) are remarkable for the period 1970-2020, driven primarily by afforestation implemented in the Luanhe River basin. LUCC would lead to a slight decrease in mean annual runoff, and the runoff only increases in summer but decreases in other three seasons. The decrease in surface runoff and groundwater discharge jointly results in the overall decrease in runoff due to LUCC. In general, the climate change impact will dominate runoff change for the study basin, though marked afforestation has taken place and is likely to continue in the future.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0405801] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51722903] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51579128] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51620105003]
WOS关键词	ASSESSMENT-TOOL SWAT ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; MARKOV MODEL ; STREAMFLOW ; DYNAMICS ; REGION ; SOIL ; PRECIPITATION ; CALIBRATION
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000460709400017
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49197]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Long, Di
作者单位	1.Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Dept Hydraul Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Wenting,Long, Di,Bai, Peng. Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019,570:201-219.
APA	Yang, Wenting,Long, Di,&Bai, Peng.(2019).Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,570,201-219.
MLA	Yang, Wenting,et al."Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 570(2019):201-219.