A new forecasting model for groundwater quality based on short time series monitoring data

doi:10.1088/1755-1315/227/6/062014

	A new forecasting model for groundwater quality based on short time series monitoring data
	Yao,Ling 1,2,3; Zhu,Yunqiang 1,2
刊名	IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
	2019-02-01
卷号	227 期号:6
ISSN号	1755-1307
DOI	10.1088/1755-1315/227/6/062014
英文摘要	Abstract Groundwater is an important part of regional water resource, rapid urban development often witness deterioration of regional groundwater quality. This paper proposed a missing-aware-weighted hidden markov model (MWMO-HMM) combining expectation maximization algorithm (EM) with a weighted multi-order HMM to build groundwater quality prediction model with incomplete short-term observations. The proposed model was used to predict hydrogen ion concentration (PH) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) of groundwater in five representative cities. The Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients of MWMO-HMM prediction results are respectively 61.51% and 98.06%. Compared with prediction results achieved by auto-regressive and moving average model (ARMA) and gray model (GM), the results show that MWMO-HMM is superior to ARMA and GM, ARMA and GM demonstrate an unstable performance of forecasting. In addition, missing value has a greater effect on ARMA than GM. Furthermore, the integral observations filled with EM algorithm indicates that COD concentration of karst groundwater in Guizhou is affected to some extent by the surface precipitation. The proposed model can predict groundwater quality effectively and meet the management requirements in groundwater prediction based on disintegrated small sample datasets. It would assist decision makers to enhance the decision making for future sustainable development.
语种	英语
出版者	IOP Publishing
WOS记录号	IOP:1755-1307-227-6-062014
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49135]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
作者单位	1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 2.Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China 3.Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510070, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yao,Ling,Zhu,Yunqiang. A new forecasting model for groundwater quality based on short time series monitoring data[J]. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science,2019,227(6).
APA	Yao,Ling,&Zhu,Yunqiang.(2019).A new forecasting model for groundwater quality based on short time series monitoring data.IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science,227(6).
MLA	Yao,Ling,et al."A new forecasting model for groundwater quality based on short time series monitoring data".IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 227.6(2019).