Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-42811-9

	Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa
	Mahmood, Rashid 1; Jia, Shaofeng 1,2,3; Zhu, Wenbin 1
刊名	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
	2019-04-19
卷号	9 页码:18
ISSN号	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-019-42811-9
通讯作者	Mahmood, Rashid(rashi1254@gmail.com)
英文摘要	An understanding of climate variability, trends, and prediction for better water resource management and planning in a basin is very important. Since the water resources of the Lake Chad basin (LCB) are highly vulnerable to changing climate, in the present study, a combination of trend analysis methods was used to examine the climate variability and trends for the period of 1951-2015 using observed and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data, and a combination of spectral analysis techniques was used for the prediction of temperature and precipitation using CRU data. Eighty-four percent of the temperature time series indicated extremely strong signals of increasing trends (alpha = 0.001) and 25-38% of the precipitation time series indicated strong decreasing trends (alpha = 0.05). Temperature is expected to increase and precipitation is expected to decrease in the future. However, surprisingly, in some regions located in the South, the temperature was predicted to decrease slightly in 2021-2030 relative to 2006-2015. This decrease might occur because these regions are highly protected natural resource areas and forests are frequently present. On the whole, the temperature was predicted to increase by 0.65-1.6 degrees C and precipitation was predicted to decrease by 13-11% in the next two decades (i.e., 2016-2025 and 2026-2035) relative to 1961-1990. Periodic analysis showed a 20- to 25-year cycle in precipitation in all basins and a 40- to 45-year cycle in temperature but only in the Chari-Logone basin.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20010201] ; Power China International Limited
WOS关键词	WATER-RESOURCES ; RIVER-BASIN ; RAINFALL ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; ADAPTATION ; STREAMFLOW ; RECOVERY ; DROUGHTS ; IMPACTS
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
WOS记录号	WOS:000465004600007
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Power China International Limited
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/48162]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Mahmood, Rashid
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Qinghai Inst Water Resources & Hydropower, Qinghai Key Lab Basin Water Cycle & Ecol, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China 3.Qinghai Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mahmood, Rashid,Jia, Shaofeng,Zhu, Wenbin. Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2019,9:18.
APA	Mahmood, Rashid,Jia, Shaofeng,&Zhu, Wenbin.(2019).Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,9,18.
MLA	Mahmood, Rashid,et al."Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 9(2019):18.