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	The initial errors that induce a significant "spring predictability barrier" for el nino events and their implications for target observation: results from an earth system model
	Duan, Wansuo1,3; Hu, Junya1,2
刊名	Climate dynamics
	2016-06-01
卷号	46期号:11-12页码:3599-3615
关键词	El nino events Spring predictability barrier Initial errors Target observation
ISSN号	0930-7575
DOI	10.1007/s00382-015-2789-5
通讯作者	Duan, wansuo(duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The national center for atmospheric research community earth system model is used to study the "spring predictability barrier" (spb) problem for el nino events from the perspective of initial error growth. by conducting perfect model predictability experiments, we obtain two types of initial sea temperature errors, which often exhibit obvious season-dependent evolution and cause a significant spb when predicting the onset of el nino events bestriding spring. one type of initial errors possesses a sea surface temperature anomaly (ssta) pattern with negative anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial pacific, plus a basin-wide dipolar subsurface temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial pacific and positive anomalies in the lower layers of the western equatorial pacific. the other type consists of an ssta component with positive anomalies over the southeastern equatorial pacific, plus a large-scale zonal dipole pattern of the subsurface temperature anomaly with positive anomalies in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial pacific and negative anomalies in the lower layers of the central-western equatorial pacific. both exhibit a la nina-like evolving mode and cause an under-prediction for nino-3 ssta of el nino events. for the former initial error type, the resultant prediction errors grow in a manner similar to the behavior of the growth phase of la nina; while for the latter initial error type, they experience a process that is similar to el nino decay and transition to a la nina growth phase. both two types of initial errors cause negative prediction errors of nino-3 ssta for el nino events. the prediction errors for nino-3 ssta are mainly due to the contribution of initial sea temperature errors in the large-error-related regions in the upper layers of the eastern tropical pacific and/or in the lower layers of the western tropical pacific. these regions may represent "sensitive areas" for el nino-southern oscillation (enso) predictions, thereby providing information for target observations to improve the forecasting skill of enso.
WOS关键词	SINGULAR VECTOR ANALYSIS ; HEAT-CONTENT VARIABILITY ; OCEAN RECHARGE PARADIGM ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; COUPLED MODEL ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; CONCEPTUAL-MODEL
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000381108600013
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2374441
专题	中国科学院大学
通讯作者	Duan, Wansuo
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duan, Wansuo,Hu, Junya. The initial errors that induce a significant "spring predictability barrier" for el nino events and their implications for target observation: results from an earth system model[J]. Climate dynamics,2016,46(11-12):3599-3615.
APA	Duan, Wansuo,&Hu, Junya.(2016).The initial errors that induce a significant "spring predictability barrier" for el nino events and their implications for target observation: results from an earth system model.Climate dynamics,46(11-12),3599-3615.
MLA	Duan, Wansuo,et al."The initial errors that induce a significant "spring predictability barrier" for el nino events and their implications for target observation: results from an earth system model".Climate dynamics 46.11-12(2016):3599-3615.

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