A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay

doi:10.1007/s00343-011-0520-x

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay
	Shi Honghua 1,2; Wang Zongling 1; Fang Guohong 1; Zheng Wei 1; Hu Long 3
刊名	CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY
	2011-07-01
卷号	29 期号:4 页码:905-911
关键词	Statistical Dynamics Modeling Inverse Method Marine Ecosystem Dynamics Jiaozhou Bay
ISSN号	0254-4059
DOI	10.1007/s00343-011-0520-x
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.; Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.
学科主题	Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Oceanography
URL标识	查看原文
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000292558700020
公开日期	2012-07-03
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/11554]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 3.Fudan Univ, Sch Math Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shi Honghua,Wang Zongling,Fang Guohong,et al. A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,2011,29(4):905-911.
APA	Shi Honghua,Wang Zongling,Fang Guohong,Zheng Wei,&Hu Long.(2011).A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay.CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,29(4),905-911.
MLA	Shi Honghua,et al."A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay".CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY 29.4(2011):905-911.