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题名	广东省若干重要领域的能源情景研究; Forecasting and Scenario Analysis for the Energy Situation of Some Important Domain in Guangdong Province
作者	陈愚
学位类别	博士
答辩日期	2008-06-06
授予单位	中国科学院广州能源研究所
授予地点	广州能源研究所
导师	赵黛青
关键词	广东省 能源 情景分析 自下而上模型 能源政策 环境
其他题名	Forecasting and Scenario Analysis for the Energy Situation of Some Important Domain in Guangdong Province
中文摘要	Energy is an important material basis of the development of modern sosiety. Energy supply fuel and chemical raw materials for industry, agriculture, commerce, transport and residential consumption. With the rapid economic development of Guangdong province, energy consumption will continue to increase. Guangdong Province's energy resource is scarce, and energy self-sufficiency rate has been decreasing. Contradiction between energy supply and demand is prominent. At the same time, the large-scale use of fossil energy has caused serious e environmental pollution. With the unfavorable situation, it is need to study the energy strategy to ensure the environment-friendly energy supply. With AIM-Enduse (bottom-up) model, the scenario simulation is given for the future development of eletricity, ethylene and residential consumption. First the electricity production and consumption in recent years is reviewed. According to economic growth, electricity consumption trends and the experience of developed country, the electricity consumption and constitutes are forecasted. Three scenarioes are built to simulate the development of electricity. Transmitting electric power from south-west china to Guangdong can decrease the fossil fule consumption and greenhouse gas emission. But the economic growth of south-west china likely to reduce delivery of electricity. Small thermal power generation units is closed down, and supercritical pressure combustion and ultra-supercritical combustion is substituted to improve the thermal efficiency. With the technology of wind power, biomass, garbage Power Generation, the abundant renewable energy resources in Guangdong Province is used to replace part of fossil fuel consumption. According to the development strategy of petrochemical industry in Guangdong province, ethylene capacity is forecasted. Only 2 percent of oil is consumed in ethylene industry in 2005, but the proportion will increase to 30 percent in 2020. The scenarioes are built by optimization of feedstock or CO2 taxation. Large quantities of LNG will be imported in Guangdong province, the ethane component in LNG will be used to produce ethylene and optimized the feedstock. The resource of ethylene feedstock will be enlarged by the technology of HCC, but the concomitant high energy consumption and SO2 emission should be faced and solved.The market competition of higher efficiency technology will be increased by CO2 taxation, but the effect is limited, when the tax value is low. The situation of residential comsuption in recent years is reviewed. Residential erengy comsuption is separated into four portions (lighting, refrigeration, household appliances, kitchen and hot water). According to the socio-economic development of Guangdong Province, the service demand of residents energy consumption is forecast. Three scenarioes are built by changing the technology structure. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions of kitchen and hot water is always the biggest. The potential of kitchen and hot water in energy-saving and emission reduction potential should be concerned. Natural gas will be directly used in residential consumption for its clean and high efficiency. The biomass energy in rural areas will be used effectively by renewable technology to substitutes for fossil energy, at the same time, which is conducive to environmental protection. When the energy-saving technologies is focused, the concept of thrifty life should be advocated to avoid the excessive pursuit of comfort and the waste of erengy.
语种	中文
公开日期	2011-07-10 ; 2011-07-15
页码	136
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/4053]
专题	中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈愚. 广东省若干重要领域的能源情景研究, Forecasting and Scenario Analysis for the Energy Situation of Some Important Domain in Guangdong Province[D]. 广州能源研究所. 中国科学院广州能源研究所. 2008.

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