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题名	天然气水合物资源经济评估; economic evaluation model of natral gas hydrate resource
作者	刘晓宇
学位类别	硕士
答辩日期	2007-06-09
授予单位	中国科学院广州能源研究所
授予地点	广州能源研究所
导师	樊栓狮
关键词	净现值 天然气水合物 经济评估 经济可采 最低经济储量
其他题名	economic evaluation model of natral gas hydrate resource
中文摘要	Natural gas hydrate, as a new kind of clean energy with high-efficiency and huge-reserves, exists in many countries and regions around the world. Nowadays many researches have been done on its properties and exploration technologies. As we all know, the economic value of mineral resources can only be obtained through reasonable exploitation methods. The projects of petroleum or gas exploiting always need large-scale capital devotion and have long investment recovery periods. So it is very important to evaluate the economic viability of a natural gas hydrate-exploiting project before investing in order to eliminate unreasonable projects and reduce the risk of investment. Aiming at present research on natural gas hydrate, the author proposes a mathematic model for economic evaluation founded on net present value method, which is one kind of evaluation methods most widely adopted in evaluating petroleum or coal. In this model the factors impacting upon the exploitation process are quantified, and the author attempts to take the characters of hydrate exploitation into account, so the model can be used to simulate the actual process. Drawing lessons from the investment of natural gas exploitation, the model in which all kind of economic and technology factors are quantified is used to evaluate a given natural gas hydrate resource and calculate the net present value of the project. The result reveals that the amount of exploitation capital and ground construction investment has little influence on NPV, and the NPV mainly depends on the tax rate( )and operating cost( ). So the work emphasis of natural gas hydrate exploitation is to reduce .Under tax rate of 25%, even if the operating cost of natural gas hydrate exploitation were raised to 2 times of that of conventional gas, ground construction investment were raised to 3 times, the calculated NPV is still plus, namely , the natural gas hydrate exploitation project can yield good economic returns. Natural gas hydrate often exists beneath the sea floor or frozen ground, and the methane resources in it usually range between 1012m3 and 1014m3. In the lowest reserve evaluation model, the author analyzes how the two factors hydrate saturation ( ) and buried depth ( ) influence the lowest economic reserve ( ). The results reveal that the minimum value of is 0.0012, when h=100m, Nm3, which exceeds the normal reserves of methane hydrate. So investor should be choosey about resources, the x of which is less than 0.0012. Evaluations of the Black Sea region, the Gulf of Mexico, the Blake Ridge and Nankai Trough were made employing this model. According to the results of evaluation, the natural gas resources in these regions are economic recoverable. The evaluation models for natural gas hydrate proposed in this paper can provide references to judge if the project is economic. At present the data related to hydrate exploitation is very scarce, and there are only a few industrial examples, so it still needs to be validated in real exploitation whether the model is scientific.
语种	中文
公开日期	2011-07-10 ; 2011-07-15
页码	74
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/4017]
专题	中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	刘晓宇. 天然气水合物资源经济评估, economic evaluation model of natral gas hydrate resource[D]. 广州能源研究所. 中国科学院广州能源研究所. 2007.

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