Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

doi:10.1038/srep43822

	Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China
	Tang, CQ; Dong, YF; Herrando-Moraira, S; Matsui, T; Ohashi, H; He, LY; Nakao, K; Tanaka, N; Tomita, M; Li, XS
刊名	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
	2017
卷号	7 页码:43822（1-18）
DOI	10.1038/srep43822
产权排序	9
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5-1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.
学科主题	Science & Technology - Other Topics
项目编号	中国科学院山地生态恢复与生物资源利用重点实验室
语种	英语
资助机构	This study received financial support from the Pro Natura Foundation-Japan (2014), the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, the "Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE" (grant no. 201630I024) from the CSIC, Spain, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 31300349). ; Pro Natura Foundation-Japan ; This study received financial support from the Pro Natura Foundation-Japan (2014), the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, the "Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE" (grant no. 201630I024) from the CSIC, Spain, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 31300349). ; Pro Natura Foundation-Japan ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan ; "Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE" from the CSIC, Spain [201630I024] ; "Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE" from the CSIC, Spain [201630I024] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [NSFC 31300349] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [NSFC 31300349] ; This study received financial support from the Pro Natura Foundation-Japan (2014), the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, the "Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE" (grant no. 201630I024) from the CSIC, Spain, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 31300349). ; Pro Natura Foundation-Japan ; This study received financial support from the Pro Natura Foundation-Japan (2014), the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, the "Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE" (grant no. 201630I024) from the CSIC, Spain, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 31300349). ; Pro Natura Foundation-Japan ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan ; "Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE" from the CSIC, Spain [201630I024] ; "Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE" from the CSIC, Spain [201630I024] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [NSFC 31300349] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [NSFC 31300349]
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://210.75.237.14/handle/351003/29146]
专题	成都生物研究所_生态研究
通讯作者	Tang, CQ; Peng, MC (reprint author), Yunnan Univ, Inst Ecol & Geobot, Kunming 650091, Peoples R China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tang, CQ,Dong, YF,Herrando-Moraira, S,et al. Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:43822（1-18）.
APA	Tang, CQ.,Dong, YF.,Herrando-Moraira, S.,Matsui, T.,Ohashi, H.,...&Peng, MC .(2017).Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,43822（1-18）.
MLA	Tang, CQ,et al."Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):43822（1-18）.