Time series analysis of weekly influenza-like illness rate using a one-year period of factors in random forest regression.

	Time series analysis of weekly influenza-like illness rate using a one-year period of factors in random forest regression.
	Wu, Hongyan ; Cai, Yunpeng ; Wu, Yongsheng ; Zhong, Ren ; Li, Qi ; Zheng, Jing ; Lin, Denan ; Li, Ye
刊名	BIOSCIENCE TRENDS
	2017
文献子类	期刊论文
英文摘要	Influenza, a disease caused by a respiratory virus, sickened over 5,043,127 citizens in Shenzhen, China, from January 2014 to April 2016. An accurate forecasting of outbreaks of influenza-like illness (ILI, here we refer to ILI as the upper respiratory infection) could facilitate public health officials to suggest public health actions earlier. In this study, a random forest regression constructed with a one-year period of factors was adopted to forecast the weekly ILI rateusing the clinical data from Shenzhen Health Information Center. The following conclusions were drawn based on this method: i) Compared to the predication with 52 (one-year) history observations, the accuracy of the predication was improved by adding another 52 first-order difference variables: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) decreased from 5.04% to 4.35% and mean squared error (MSE) decreased from 2.85E-04 to 1.97E-04. ii) The variables with the first-order difference seemed more significant than the original history observations during the predication. In addition, both the recent observations and the later observations seemed important in the predicating procedure. iii) Analysis using the Pearson correlation concluded that weather conditions, the influence ofwhich could have been implied by history observations and seemed insignificant for the predication, showed correlation to the weekly average temperature and maximum temperature. The correlation coefficients were -0.3656 and -0.3583, respectively.
URL标识	查看原文
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.siat.ac.cn:8080/handle/172644/12613]
专题	深圳先进技术研究院_数字所
作者单位	BIOSCIENCE TRENDS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Hongyan , Cai, Yunpeng , Wu, Yongsheng ,et al. Time series analysis of weekly influenza-like illness rate using a one-year period of factors in random forest regression.[J]. BIOSCIENCE TRENDS,2017.
APA	Wu, Hongyan ., Cai, Yunpeng ., Wu, Yongsheng ., Zhong, Ren ., Li, Qi .,...& Li, Ye.(2017).Time series analysis of weekly influenza-like illness rate using a one-year period of factors in random forest regression..BIOSCIENCE TRENDS.
MLA	Wu, Hongyan ,et al."Time series analysis of weekly influenza-like illness rate using a one-year period of factors in random forest regression.".BIOSCIENCE TRENDS (2017).