Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.016

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	Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model
	Chen, Quanrun 1; Dietzenbacher, Erik 2; Los, Bart 2; Yang, Cuihong3
刊名	ECONOMIC MODELLING
	2016-11-01
卷号	58 页码:52-63
关键词	Input-output model Household consumption Multiplier effect Government spending
ISSN号	0264-9993
DOI	10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.016
英文摘要	In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying the short-run effects of fiscal stimuli on GDP and its industry-level value added components. We illustrate the use of the model by estimating the short-run effect of the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package on China's GDP. Our results show that this stimulus package might have led to an increase in GDP of more than 3 trillion yuan, which is 9.5% of China's GDP in 2008. This result compares well to actual changes in GDP as observed in the years immediately after the introduction of the package. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71201162] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71125005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[61273208]
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000382593000005
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/23510]
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Chen, Quanrun
作者单位	1.Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Stat, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, POB 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Quanrun,Dietzenbacher, Erik,Los, Bart,et al. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model[J]. ECONOMIC MODELLING,2016,58:52-63.
APA	Chen, Quanrun,Dietzenbacher, Erik,Los, Bart,&Yang, Cuihong.(2016).Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model.ECONOMIC MODELLING,58,52-63.
MLA	Chen, Quanrun,et al."Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model".ECONOMIC MODELLING 58(2016):52-63.