Neural network methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: an asymmetric verification to business cycles

doi:10.1007/s11704-010-0506-4

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	Neural network methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: an asymmetric verification to business cycles
	Zhang, Dabin 1,2; Yu, Lean 1; Wang, Shouyang 1; Xie, Haibin 1; Wang Shouyang
刊名	FRONTIERS OF COMPUTER SCIENCE IN CHINA
	2010-06-01
卷号	4 期号:2 页码:254-262
关键词	turning points business cycle leading indicators neural networks (NNs)
ISSN号	1673-7350
DOI	10.1007/s11704-010-0506-4
英文摘要	This paper examines the relevance of various financial and economic indicators in forecasting business cycle turning points using neural network (NN) models. A three-layer feed-forward neural network model is used to forecast turning points in the business cycle of China. The NN model uses 13 indicators of economic activity as inputs and produces the probability of a recession as its output. Different indicators are ranked in terms of their effectiveness of predicting recessions in China. Out-of-sample results show that some financial and economic indicators, such as steel output, M2, Pig iron yield, and the freight volume of the entire society are useful for predicting recession in China using neural networks. The asymmetry of business cycle can be verified using our NN method.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[70971052] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[70601029] ; Post Doctor Foundation of China[20080440539]
WOS研究方向	Computer Science
语种	英语
出版者	HIGHER EDUCATION PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000292504200011
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/10999]
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Yu, Lean
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Syst Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Huazhong Normal Univ, Dept Informat Management, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Dabin,Yu, Lean,Wang, Shouyang,et al. Neural network methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: an asymmetric verification to business cycles[J]. FRONTIERS OF COMPUTER SCIENCE IN CHINA,2010,4(2):254-262.
APA	Zhang, Dabin,Yu, Lean,Wang, Shouyang,Xie, Haibin,&Wang Shouyang.(2010).Neural network methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: an asymmetric verification to business cycles.FRONTIERS OF COMPUTER SCIENCE IN CHINA,4(2),254-262.
MLA	Zhang, Dabin,et al."Neural network methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: an asymmetric verification to business cycles".FRONTIERS OF COMPUTER SCIENCE IN CHINA 4.2(2010):254-262.