An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Induced Wind Gust Forecasts

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0015.1

	An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Induced Wind Gust Forecasts
	Li, Qinglan 1,5; Xu, Pengcheng 2; Wang, Xingbao 1,3; Lan, Hongping 4,5; Cao, Chunyan 4,5; Li, Guangxin 1; Zhang, Lijie 4,5; Sun, Liqun 1
刊名	WEATHER AND FORECASTING
	2016-12-01
卷号	31 期号:6 页码:1817-1832
ISSN号	0882-8156
DOI	10.1175/WAF-D-16-0015.1
英文摘要	This study provides a quantitative forecast method for predicting the potential maximum wind gust at certain automatic weather stations (AWSs) in South China through the investigation of the relationship between the wind gusts observed at the stations and tropical cyclones' (TCs) main characteristics: TC intensity, TC distance to the station, TC azimuth relative to the station, and TC size. Historical TC data from 1968 to June 2014 within a distance of 700 km to several AWSs in South China are analyzed. The wind gust data available for the same period taken from six coastal AWSs: Yantian International Container Terminal (YICT), Mawan Port (MWP), and Shekou Ferry Terminal (SFT) in Shenzhen, and Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), Cheung Chau Island (CCH), and Waglan Island (WGL) in Hong Kong, are used to build the statistical relationship. The probability of gust gale occurrence (wind gust >= 17 m s(-1)) at these six stations is also computed. Results show that the wind induced by offshore TCs is strongly affected by the surrounding terrain conditions of the stations. Coastal stations open to the wind direction suffer a greater wind influence than do stations with obstructions located in the wind direction. When TCs are approaching the coast in South China, the most dangerous area is the northeast quadrant of TCs. In this quadrant, typhoons might incur gust gales at coastal stations in South China even at a distance of more than 400 km from the stations.
资助项目	Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province[2015A030313742] ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province[2016A050503035] ; Innovation of Science and Technology Commission of Shenzhen Municipality[JCYJ20120617115926138] ; Innovation of Science and Technology Commission of Shenzhen Municipality[JCYJ20150521144320984]
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000391518700005
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/24509]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Li, Qinglan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Math, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Bur Meteorol, Ctr Australian Weather & Climate Res, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 4.Shenzhen Meteorol Bur, Shenzhen, Peoples R China 5.Shenzhen Key Lab Severe Weather South China, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Qinglan,Xu, Pengcheng,Wang, Xingbao,et al. An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Induced Wind Gust Forecasts[J]. WEATHER AND FORECASTING,2016,31(6):1817-1832.
APA	Li, Qinglan.,Xu, Pengcheng.,Wang, Xingbao.,Lan, Hongping.,Cao, Chunyan.,...&Sun, Liqun.(2016).An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Induced Wind Gust Forecasts.WEATHER AND FORECASTING,31(6),1817-1832.
MLA	Li, Qinglan,et al."An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Induced Wind Gust Forecasts".WEATHER AND FORECASTING 31.6(2016):1817-1832.