East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations

doi:10.1177/0959683615612564

CORC > 地质与地球物理研究所 > 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 > 中国科学院新生代地质与环境重点实验室

	East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations
	Li, Jianyong 1; Ilvonen, Liisa 2; Xu, Qinghai 3,4,5; Ni, Jian 6; Jin, Liya 7; Holmstrom, Lasse 2; Zheng, Zhuo 8; Lu, Houyuan 9; Luo, Yunli 10; Li, Yuecong 4,5
刊名	HOLOCENE
	2016-04-01
卷号	26 期号:4 页码:592-602
关键词	climate model climate reconstructions East Asian summer monsoon monsoonal China pollen data precipitation
DOI	10.1177/0959683615612564
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	To better understand the long-term changes of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation (P-jja), quantitative reconstructions and model simulations are needed. Here, we develop continental-scale pollen-based transfer functions for P-jja with weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression and a Bayesian multinomial regression method. We apply these transfer functions to a set of fossil pollen data from monsoonal China for quantitatively reconstructing the P-jja changes over the last 9500 years. We compare the reconstructions with P-jja simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (the Kiel Climate Model, KCM). The results of cross-validation tests for the transfer functions show that both the WAPLS model (r2 = 0.83, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 112.11 mm) and the Bayesian model (r2 = 0.86, RMSEP = 107.67 mm) exhibit good predictive performance. We stack all P-jja reconstructions from northern China to a summary curve. The stacked record reveals that P-jja increased since 9500 cal. yr BP, attained its highest level during the Holocene summer monsoon maximum (HSMM) at similar to 7000-4000 cal. yr BP and declined to present. The KCM output and the reconstructions differ in the early-Holocene (similar to 9500-7000 cal. yr BP) where the model suggests higher P-jja than the reconstructions. Moreover, during the HSMM, the amplitude of the P-jja changes (similar to 20-60 mm above present) in simulations is lower than the reconstructed changes (similar to 70-110 mm above present). The rising (declining) P-jja patterns in reconstructions before (after) the HSMM are more pronounced and fluctuating than in simulations. Other palaeohydrological data such as lake-level reconstructions indicate substantial monsoon precipitation changes throughout the Holocene. Our results therefore show that the KCM underestimates the overall amplitude of the Holocene monsoon precipitation changes.
WOS关键词	NORTH-CENTRAL CHINA ; HIGH-RESOLUTION ; HOLOCENE VEGETATION ; MIDHOLOCENE CLIMATE ; MOISTURE EVOLUTION ; DAIHAI LAKE ; ENVIRONMENTAL RECONSTRUCTION ; TEMPORAL PATTERNS ; ATLANTIC CLIMATE ; SURFACE-POLLEN
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000372866100009
资助机构	Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05120202) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05120202) ; Key National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730103) ; Key National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730103) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730103 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730103 ; Key Technology R&D Program of Hebei Province(13277611D) ; Key Technology R&D Program of Hebei Province(13277611D) ; China Scholarship Council (CSC) at the University of Helsinki(201208130087) ; China Scholarship Council (CSC) at the University of Helsinki(201208130087) ; project EBOR from the Academy of Finland ; project EBOR from the Academy of Finland ; Nordic top-level research initiative CRAICC ; Nordic top-level research initiative CRAICC ; 41371215) ; 41371215) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05120202) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05120202) ; Key National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730103) ; Key National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730103) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730103 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730103 ; Key Technology R&D Program of Hebei Province(13277611D) ; Key Technology R&D Program of Hebei Province(13277611D) ; China Scholarship Council (CSC) at the University of Helsinki(201208130087) ; China Scholarship Council (CSC) at the University of Helsinki(201208130087) ; project EBOR from the Academy of Finland ; project EBOR from the Academy of Finland ; Nordic top-level research initiative CRAICC ; Nordic top-level research initiative CRAICC ; 41371215) ; 41371215)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/53449]
专题	地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院新生代地质与环境重点实验室
作者单位	1.Univ Helsinki, Dept Geosci & Geog, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland 2.Univ Oulu, Dept Math Sci, SF-90100 Oulu, Finland 3.Hebei Normal Univ, Inst Nihewan Archaeol, East Rd Southern 2nd Ring, Shijiazhuang 050024, Hebei Province, Peoples R China 4.Hebei Normal Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Shijiazhuang 050024, Hebei Province, Peoples R China 5.Hebei Normal Univ, Hebei Key Lab Environm Change & Ecol Construct, Shijiazhuang 050024, Hebei Province, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Environm Geochem, Inst Geochem, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China 7.Lanzhou Univ, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Res Sch Arid Environm & Climate Change, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 8.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Jianyong,Ilvonen, Liisa,Xu, Qinghai,et al. East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations[J]. HOLOCENE,2016,26(4):592-602.
APA	Li, Jianyong.,Ilvonen, Liisa.,Xu, Qinghai.,Ni, Jian.,Jin, Liya.,...&Seppa, Heikki.(2016).East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations.HOLOCENE,26(4),592-602.
MLA	Li, Jianyong,et al."East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations".HOLOCENE 26.4(2016):592-602.