A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA

	A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA
	Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdelyi, Robert
刊名	ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
	2018
卷号	855 期号:2 页码:109
关键词	Solar-terrestrial Relations Sun: Coronal Mass Ejections (Cmes)
ISSN号	0004-637X
英文摘要	Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the solar system. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in interplanetary space and can even affect human activities in many aspects, causing damage to infrastructure and loss of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is vital to minimize the disruption that CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar-wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine. We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions made after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set unknown to the engine show a mean absolute prediction error of similar to 5.9 hr within the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hr. Comparisons with other models reveal that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated that can be carried out very quickly, i.e., within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.
语种	英语
资助机构	Science and Technology Facility Council (STFC), UK [ST/M000826/1] ; Royal Society (UK) ; NSFC [41574165, 41774178]
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/6239]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间科学部
通讯作者	Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdelyi, Robert
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Jiajia,Ye, Yudong,Shen, Chenglong,et al. A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2018,855(2):109.
APA	Liu, Jiajia,Ye, Yudong,Shen, Chenglong,Wang, Yuming,&Erdelyi, Robert.(2018).A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,855(2),109.
MLA	Liu, Jiajia,et al."A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 855.2(2018):109.