基于AHP与Rough Set的农业节水技术综合评价

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	基于AHP与Rough Set的农业节水技术综合评价
	翟治芬 1; 王兰英 2; 孙敏章 2; 严昌荣 1; 梁瑜珊 3
刊名	生态学报
	2012
卷号	32 期号:3 页码:931-941
关键词	农业节水技术综合评价层次分析法粗糙集
ISSN号	1000-0933
其他题名	Comprehensive evaluation of agricultural water-saving technology based on AHP and Rough Set method
英文摘要	由于不同区域自然条件的差异,农业节水技术自身特点及对应用环境条件的要求,导致不同农业节水技术的应用效果存在很大差异,有较大的不确定性,因此,如何筛选合理的评价指标,构建科学、全面的农业节水技术综合评价方法具有十分重要的意义。根据对农业节水技术应用效果的实地调研,应用Delphi法从调查获得的20项评价指标中筛选出了9项农业节水技术综合评价指标。其中节水率、积温和土壤肥力属于生态因子,产投比、劳动力投入和经济投入属于经济因子,可靠性、推广程度和农民认可度为社会因子。基于以上9项指标,构建了农业节水技术综合评价指标体系.综合评价方法(ARM)通过引入经验因子α对应用层次分析法(AHP)和粗糙集(Rough Set)所获得指标权重进行修订,使指标权重更加合理化。同时,分别应用AHP、Rough Set和ARM对甘肃省武威市的地膜覆盖、秸秆覆盖和常规畦田灌溉在大田中的应用效果进行了综合评价。评价结果显示,在对地膜覆盖技术评价中,AHP法过分强调了经济效益的作用(0.44),Rough Set法则强调的是生态效益(0.33)和社会效益(0.32),弱化了经济效益(0.05),ARM修正了以上2种方法的评价结果,获得地膜覆盖的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益,分别为0.36、0.20和0.13。在对秸秆覆盖评价中,与其它两种方法相比,Rough Set法的评价结果存在显著性差异,ARM修正获得的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益,分别为0.09、0.18和0.06。在对常规畦田灌溉评价中,Rough Set法强调了生态效益(0.28),经过修正获得的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益,分别为0.24、0.01和0.13。ARM的评价结果表明,采用地膜覆盖的经济效益最佳;同常规畦田灌溉相比较,地膜覆盖、秸秆覆盖的生态性指数分别比之高0.19和0.17,主要是由于秸秆覆盖具有保墒、增加土壤有机质以及在作物生长后期调节地温的作用,地膜覆盖具有节水、提高苗期土壤温度和促进提前出苗的作用;同秸秆覆盖相比,地膜覆盖和常规畦田灌溉的社会性指数分别高112.12%、18.18%,说明这两种技术在河西半干旱地区具有良好的社会基础。可见,在西北半干旱地区地膜覆盖用于种植玉米的效果最佳,而秸秆覆盖尽管其生态效益较高,但经济效益较低,推广应用存在一定的难度。; The agricultural water-saving technologies and their application conditions are different in different regions with different natural conditions,so it is difficult and uncertain to evaluate the existing agricultural water-saving technologies.It has great significance to select reasonable evaluation indexes and build a more scientific and comprehensive model that will help to evaluate the agricultural water-saving technologies.According to field surveys and the Delphi method,this paper selected nine indexes from twenty evaluation indexes of agricultural water-saving technology.Water-saving rate,accumulated temperature and soil fertility are ecological factors;output/input,labor input and economy input are belong to economic factors,while the reliable of technical,technical level and the acceptance from farmers are the social factors.Based on these nine indexes,a comprehensive and systematic evaluation index system of agricultural water-saving technology was constructed,allowing avoiding information overlap.This paper proposed a full evaluation model(ARM) based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Rough Set,which introduced the experience factor to revise the indexes weight by AHP and Rough Set.Using AHP,Rough Set and ARM,the existing major agricultural water-saving technologies,such as plastic mulch,straw mulch and furrow irrigation technologies were evaluated in Wuwei City,in the Gansu province.In the evaluation of plastic mulch technology,AHP emphasized a very high economic benefit(0.44),while Rough Set was most important in ecological benefit(0.33) and social benefit(0.32),failing the economic benefits(0.05).ARM revised the evaluation results of those two methods,and obtained the economic,ecological and social benefits of plastic mulch technology,was 0.36,0.20 and 0.13 respectively.However,in the evaluation of straw mulch technology,there was a significant difference in the results by Rough Set,where ARM obtained the economic,ecological and social benefits was 0.09,0.18 and 0.06 respectively.In the evaluation of furrow irrigation technology,Rough Set emphasized the ecological benefit about 0.28.After the revision of the evaluation results of those two methods,ARM obtained the economic,ecological and social benefits,was 0.24,0.01 and 0.13 respectively.Generally,evaluation results of ARM showed that plastic mulch technology gave the best economic benefit.Moreover the ecological benefit of plastic mulch and straw mulch technologies were higher by 0.19 and 0.17 than furrow irrigation technology,and this might be mainly due to the fact that straw mulch technology could keep moisture,increase soil organic matter and adjust the ground temperature in the late growth stages of maize.In addition,it emerged that plastic mulch technology could save more water as well as improve the ground temperature at seedling stage.Compared with straw mulch technology,the social benefit by plastic mulch technology and furrow irrigation technology was higher by 112.12% and 18.18% respectively,which shows that those two technologies present a strong social character,in the semi-arid areas of He Xi region.Therefore,plastic mulch technology is likely to result the best agricultural water-saving technology in maize cropping,whereas straw mulch technology demonstrated a high ecological benefit but low economic benefit,which does not fit the conditions of the Northwest of China.Based on Rough Set and AHP,ARM combined the subjective knowledge with the objective factors,could effectively overcome the problem that many of the evaluation models determined the weight subjectivity,thus the evaluation results become more realistic,which provided a scientific and simple evaluation method of agricultural water-saving technology.
学科主题	农业工程
语种	中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/17106]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_旱作节水研究室
作者单位	1.中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 农业部旱作节水农业重点实验室, 北京, 100081 2.中华人民共和国财政部农业综合开发办公室, 北京, 100045 3.北京方正联工程咨询有限公司, 北京, 100081
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	翟治芬,王兰英,孙敏章,等. 基于AHP与Rough Set的农业节水技术综合评价[J]. 生态学报,2012,32(3):931-941.
APA	翟治芬,王兰英,孙敏章,严昌荣,&梁瑜珊.(2012).基于AHP与Rough Set的农业节水技术综合评价.生态学报,32(3),931-941.
MLA	翟治芬,et al."基于AHP与Rough Set的农业节水技术综合评价".生态学报 32.3(2012):931-941.